2 stats explaining both Conference Finals

Don't worry. As usual, it's a lot more than two numbers.

A handful of factors can mostly explain any playoff series: health, three-point variance, and the play of the superstars.

But those angles are well-covered and often, frankly, boring to write about. So, as I did for Rounds 1 and 2, I’ve cherry-picked some other numbers that tell an interesting story about the current state of each series. These are not always the most important statistics, but they’re all enlightening in their own way.

Minnesota Timberwolves — Dallas Mavericks (DAL up 3-0)

+5.4

According to Cleaning the Glass, Minnesota averaged 21.1 made free throws per 100 field goal attempts in the regular season while allowing just 19.3, for a positive differential of +1.8. Dallas had a roughly breakeven +0.3 differential (which also stayed about the same after the trade deadline). Free throws should not have been a significant edge for either team.

Yet in three games, Dallas has had a +5.4 margin on free throw rate. While the raw free throw attempts look similar, it’s misleading. The Mavs haven’t been able to get up as many shots as Minny; the Wolves have generally won the possession game with a slight edge in offensive rebounds and turnovers. But Dallas is scoring far more points per shot thanks in part to a significantly higher foul-drawn rate.

Put another way, Minnesota has three players with at least 10 fouls in this series — Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, and Rudy Gobert (shockingly, Karl-Anthony Towns has avoided foul trouble!). Nobody on the Mavs has more than eight.

The Conley fouls, in particular, are illuminating. I love Mike Conley. Quick anecdote: I met him once when he was still with the Grizzlies. He gave me an appreciative head nod after I threw an alley-oop to a friend of his in a pickup game. Made my week. So it brings me no joy to say that he’s been mercilessly attacked in this series, particularly when he had the Kyrie Irving assignment in Game 3:

Conley is far from the only perimeter defender getting blown by regularly. Point-of-attack defense, a Minnesota strength all season, is crumbling under the Luka Doncic/Kyrie Irving one-two punch. Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Anthony Edwards are the best perimeter defensive trio in the league. It hasn’t mattered. Dallas’ ballhandlers have gotten to their spots without much trouble all series long, and they’ve used their canniness, deceleration, and floater threats to draw an abundance of fouls.

Exacerbating matters, the Wolves have shot just 73% on their free throw attempts vs. 81% for Dallas. Minny isn’t just shooting fewer; they’re making fewer. That’s a bad combination!

Shots inside the arc (particularly in the paint) are far more likely to draw fouls than three-pointers. Relatedly, the Wolfpack has attempted an astonishing 26 more threes than Dallas in this series. In a perfect Minnesotan world, the Wolves would make a high percentage from deep to combat threes' inherent disadvantage in foul-drawing. They’d also probably prefer less snow in the winter, but this ain’t paradise — the Wolves are just 35% from beyond the arc across three games, and they still need to break out their shovels each December.

+9.1%

If we judge solely by accuracy, Minnesota had the second-best rim protection in the league in the regular season, allowing just 62.5% of opponent layups and dunks to tickle the twine after the trade deadline.

But guess who was number one in that stretch?

Dallas’ 62.3% accuracy allowed since the addition of Daniel Gafford speaks to the kinetic freneticism that twin centers Dereck Lively and Gafford provide night in and night out. Minnesota’s defense is built on the singular excellence of Rudy Gobert (their rim protection numbers crash off a cliff whenever he rests), while Dallas can alternate above-average shotblockers playing at maximum energy for an entire game. Both the Wolves (Edwards, McDaniels) and the Mavs (the excellent Derrick Jones Jr. and PJ Washington) have long-armed, springy wings to help in the air when needed, too.

But in a clash of titanic strengths, Dallas has emerged the clear victor. They’re nailing 70.6% of their shots at the rack and allowing just 61.5%, a +9.1% difference in rim accuracy.

Dallas has rained lobs all over the court, forcing Rudy Gobert to stay home. That’s exposed Naz Reid and Karl-Anthony Towns to the predations of not just Irving and Doncic, which is understandable, but even players like Washington:

On Minnesota’s side, Edwards has really struggled in the paint, shooting a pathetic 36.4% on his drives for the series. Karl-Anthony Towns can’t buy a bucket (that upcoming supermax contract better give him more spending power), and Gobert has had difficulties even receiving a clean pass. Gafford and Lively have been everywhere. Shots are being erased from existence like Thanos is snapping along in the crowd:

A team doesn’t go down (up) 3-0 in a series without many things going wrong (right), but these two related stats are particularly telling.

Boston Celtics — Indiana Pacers (BOS wins 4-0)

62

Before the Eastern Conference Finals started, I mentioned Indiana's ability to avoid turnovers against Boston as a potential advantage. Boston’s defense forced the fourth-fewest turnovers in the league overall, and no opponent turned Indiana over less often in the regular season.

**Balloon deflating sound**

Indiana had a whopping 62 turnovers (and a 16.2% turnover rate) in the Conference Finals, compared to just 42 for Boston. The Pacers were a threat to win three of these four games, but it always felt like the turnover bug bit them at the worst possible times. Jrue Holiday’s game-winning steal on Andrew Nembhard (who played fantastically overall) at the end of Game 3 was the most noteworthy. Still, it’s hard to forget the Game 1 triple tragedies of All-NBAer Tyrese Haliburton losing his handle out of bounds, Indiana’s inability to inbound (which set up Jaylen Brown’s miraculous game-tying three in Game 1), and Holiday forcing Haliburton to lose his handle again with a minute left in overtime. Out of a sense of mercy for Pacers fans, I won’t embed those lowlights.

Well, just one. That inbounds pass was a combination of painful offense (they had a timeout!) and vicious defense:

While Indiana had plenty of self-inflicted woes, Boston deserves major credit, too. Holiday was involved in many of the series’ biggest defensive moments, and Jaylen Brown had eight steals in four games. Derrick White, whom I just wrote about, had eight steals of his own (and nine blocks) and was an off-ball menace all series long. I loved how casually he broke up this seemingly wide-open lob:

The Boston defense never looked better than at the end of games, when they consistently choked the chutzpah out of Indiana’s offense.

For the Pacers to pull off the upset, they had to take care of the ball. Unfortunately, they did the opposite.

-37.3

Both Indiana and Boston averaged 1.041 points per halfcourt play, which highlights the closeness of this series. 1.041 is just slightly behind these teams’ respective top-three regular season marks.

Indiana successfully scored even on a set Boston defense, a surprising outcome made even more impressive by Haliburton's absence in the second half of the series. Nembhard stepped up, and Pascal Siakam consistently rang the cash register from the midrange. Myles Turner and TJ McConnell both had moments where they carried Indiana’s offense.

Boston scored plenty themselves, but they had some difficulties with the Pacers’, uh, pace. Even when Indiana couldn’t get in transition, everything they did was fast and decisive. Players got off the ball and immediately moved into the next cut or screen; everyone got involved. Rick Carlisle took a lot of flak in this series, but he also deserves credit for the success of the motion machine he created.

Unfortunately, Indiana could not stop shooting themselves in the foot right before the finish line. And Boston happily provided the pistol.

Indiana’s “clutch” net rating in this series was an unbelievably horrendous -37.3 points per 100 possessions (which, somehow, is marginally better than Minnesota’s -39.2, by the way, but Indy/Boston played more “clutch” minutes). That’s worse than the worst regular season mark, held by the Washington Wizards.

That’s right, end-of-game Indiana was more bungly than the Wizards. Yikes. And that clutch number, biblically bad as it is, doesn’t even do the whole story justice. Boston played poorly on offense in closing moments, too. They had plenty of their own miscues, from turnovers to wide-open bricks to blown layups:

But the Pacers were so terrible that it didn’t matter.

I applaud Indiana for their fight in the Conference Finals, particularly without Haliburton. This series did not have to be nearly as entertaining as it was, and the Pacers deserve far more credit than the Celtics deserve blame.

But in the end, Boston will be hosting the NBA Finals, where they seem likely to be visited by the Mavericks. Let’s hope the championship will be just as fun (and twice as long).