Ballmer accepts, Toronto prays for lightning

After some initial bluster, Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer has decided to accept the NBA’s punishment, allowing us to all move on with the upcoming season (thank the basketball gods).

His full note is on social media here, and it’s exactly what you’d expect: an apology to fans and the league for creating a distraction, but one that takes no blame for his own actions. (To be fair, he can’t really take blame unless he wants to plead guilty to whatever charges the United States Justice Department, the SEC, or any other investigative bodies cook up.)

It’s fine. The important thing is that the Clippers have decided to swallow their bitter medicine instead of pursuing what would have been an inevitably fruitless but long-lasting legal Hail Mary. Perhaps they think cutting their losses now puts them on the road toward a reduction in penalty for good behavior, which is exactly what happened to Minnesota in the Joe Smith case. I suspect they’re right, but the Leonard case was more severe and the Clippers’ pushback far more brazen. We’ll check back a few seasons from now.

On the heels of Ballmer’s announcement came the Shams report that the Clippers and Raptors had finally consummated their long-paused trade, in which LA extracts a heavy price from Toronto: two firsts in ‘31 and ‘33, a swap next summer, two seconds, and Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick.

For a (say it with me now) healthy Kawhi Leonard, that’s a reasonable price, even at 35 years old! The Raptors were a spunky group that likely would have upset Cleveland in the first round if Scottie Barnes didn’t tweak his leg halfway through the series (or if Immanuel Quickley plays at all), and they just added a guy who was likely the fifth-best qualifying player in the league last year.

But the last time we saw Kawhi Leonard play even 60 games in two straight years was 2016 and 2017 — a full decade ago. He played 65 last season; what are the odds he’s still upright and healthy in the playoffs? And is the team’s surrounding core, even with Leonard, a real contender in a beefed-up East?

Quickley has been a disappointment health-wise and defensively since arriving in Toronto three seasons ago, but he’s still a bombs-away gunner who takes great care of the ball. Jamal Shead is an elite defender and excellent passer as a high-minutes backup point guard. RJ Barrett is an underrated (if often frustrating) jack-of-all-trades at the two-man spot. Jakob Poeltl is certainly a center. I like Ja’Kobe Walter’s 3-and-Dness a whole lot, and rookie Allen Graves looked like a potential Day 1 contributor in Summer League. I already wrote about the defensive potential of the Collin Murray-Boyles, Scottie Barnes, and Kawhi Leonard frontcourt.

Thankfully, Leonard should make an even bigger difference in the team’s offense.

Like the guy he’s replacing, Ingram, Leonard likes to get the ball and assess the court with his dead shark eyes, projecting odds and outcomes. Unlike Ingram, Leonard is happy to fire away from deep (he nearly doubled Ingram’s 3PA per 100 last season), and he’s a far more efficient half-court scorer overall. Leonard has been at least the 70th percentile in points per shot every year of his career (and was 91st percentile last season); Ingram has only cracked that barrier twice, both times a half-decade ago.

Ingram is a good shotmaker. Leonard is elite. It’s not pretty, exactly. He’s a butcher, carving up defenders with precise brutality:

So, yeah, Leonard remains a killer. But he’s going into the final year of his contract and had made his preference for Toronto clear. What other team would’ve given up two unprotected firsts and a swap (which could convey if Leonard suffers a hardly unprecedented major injury next season) for a rental? Perhaps the price was higher than expected so Toronto could get off the remaining $82 million owed to similarly injury-prone Brandon Ingram, but they’ll also have to pay Kawhi. Given that Leonard waived his trade kicker (worth a whopping $8 million) to help make the Raptors’ finances work, expect a very generous extension even if Leonard’s season goes poorly from the jump.

What is Toronto’s best-case scenario? We’ve had eight straight years with a different NBA champion. As a contender maximalist, I’d begrudgingly give the Raptors a seat at the table (although it would be a cobweb-strewn folding chair I retrieved from the garage).

If Barnes can carry over his playoff performance, if Leonard can stay healthy, and if they can scavenge together enough high-level point guard play from the fiery Jamal Shead’s defense and streaky Quickley’s offense, the two-way upside here is actually pretty high. That’s a lot of ifs, and that’s before we get to the myriad Eastern teams roughly on par with or superior to Toronto: New York, Philly, Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Indiana, Boston, maybe Atlanta or Orlando or Washington.

Memories of Toronto’s 2019 championship still electrify the town. Now, the Raptors stand on a hill with a metal rod, listening to rolling thunder, hoping lightning strikes the same spot twice.