Did the Spurs achieve a Pyrrhic victory?

On extremes, emptying the tank, and pot commitment

It’s been about nine hours since Thunder-Spurs ended last night, and I’m still jazzed up. What a match! I can’t remember the last Game 1 that so lived up to such immense hype (mostly because I’m sleep-deprived and can’t remember anything that isn’t last night’s immaculate game).

The defining moment, of course, was the absurd Victor Wembanyama shot from the suburbs (his only three of the night), which tied the game with just seconds left in the first overtime. If the best defender in the history of basketball can also facsimilate Steph Curry on demand, well, I’m not sure what hope there is for the rest of us:

There were so many statistical oddities, outlier performances (Alex Caruso!), and strategic levers pulled. It felt like the series was on fast forward as both coaches made adjustment after adjustment. Things that might’ve unfolded over the course of three games in another series took just minutes last night. In fact, the changes happened so quickly that I’m not sure many proofs of concept were actually proven.

I have plenty to say, but I need to rewatch the game to clarify a few things. The drunken, technicolor exhilaration of last night’s euphoria doesn’t lend itself well to immediate impartial analysis, so I’ll be back tomorrow dissecting both this game and Knicks/Cavs.

But I have this thought I’m just burning to talk about: did the Spurs go too hard in Game 1?

They got the win, so anything and everything is justified, I suppose. But my god, look at the minutes totals from this game:

Shai led all players with 51 minutes and 16 seconds of playing time. Then, the next five highest minutes players — who were all almost right behind Shai — were the Spurs starters.

As you can see from the graph, the Spurs basically ran a seven-man rotation. In Game 1. Of a double-OT game. Talk about burning the candle at both ends!

Whatever energy stores are in Wembanyama and Co.’s cells are spent. They’ll need to eat, like, a thousand Pop-Tarts each to replenish their ATP or whatever (don’t @ me, I’m not a nutritionist). That’s crazy!

If an exhausted Wembanyama doesn’t hit that miracle shot up top (and a million other things don’t happen), we’d be having some tough conversations today about Mitch Johnson’s substitution patterns. Remember when people excoriated JJ Redick for playing five guys and only five guys in an entire second half? This was arguably more extreme, as every single one of the Spurs starters played more than 24 minutes after halftime.

In fact, every Spurs starter except Champagnie played more minutes after halftime than they averaged per game in the regular season.

In poker, there’s this concept of being pot-committed. I’m oversimplifying, but it’s basically the point at which you’ve put so many chips into the pot that you have to stay in the game even with a bad hand; previous decisions have forced you into suboptimal current ones. That’s what happened to the Spurs last night. They had a tiny lead most of the game, and they threw everything they had into keeping it.

There are no sunk costs in playoff basketball. If you have a chance to win a game, you have to go for it. And the Spurs won.

Will there be anything left in the tank for Game 2? The Spurs are young, which helps. How much recovery do you need when you’re in your early 20s? Dylan Harper, the Spurs’ magnificent rookie who became the third player in recorded history to drop at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, and five steals in a Conference Finals game, is literally less than half of LeBron James’ age.

But fatigue is cumulative. The Spurs won’t be well-rested for any games left in this series, while the Thunder should have plenty left in the tank (give or take Shai, who is well-known for indefatigability). Was it worth it, to steal a game on the road? Probably. I’m guessing Game 2 won’t exactly live up to the impossible standards set by Game 1 — teams that lose their first home game typically win the second by approximately 1,000 points anyway, even before we consider these ludicrous minute loads.

Perhaps De’Aaron Fox, a surprise scratch due to an ankle issue, will be healthy and rested enough to carry the Spurs. Having three strong ballhandlers at the guard positions was a big part of San Antonio’s success against OKC’s pressure defense in the regular season, and while Harper and Castle played magnificently yesterday overall, you saw plenty of youthful mistakes (not to mention exhaustion, by the end). Reinforcements will be welcome.

To be clear, I’m not sure I would’ve even done anything differently. Far be it from me to second-guess Johnson (my pick for Coach of the Year, which I’m feeling pretty good about right now). And at the end of the day, San Antonio got what they wanted.

But I just can’t shake the feeling that there’s a price yet to be paid.