First Round Mega-preview, Part I

A question and an X-Factor for every first-round series we know

Welp, a wild finish to the regular season has ended. We know 12 of the 16 playoff teams, but as we await the fate of the play-in squads, I wanted to dive into the four playoff series that we know for sure: Knicks-Pistons, Lakers-Timberwolves, Nuggets-Clippers, and Pacers-Bucks.

Part II of the Mega Preview comes Saturday, so I have time to finalize after Friday night’s games.

3) New York Knicks vs. 6) Detroit Pistons

Season series: Pistons 3-1

The Knicks cannot be excited to see the Pistons in the first round, as they’ve really struggled to contain rising star Cade Cunningham (more on that below). That said, there are plenty of reasons for optimism if you’re a Knicks fan, starting with a simple tactical adjustment.

Key Question: Who guards Cunningham?

Tom Thibodeau is nothing if not predictable. Mikal Bridges will start on Cunningham. While Bridges has held up decently in one-on-one, he hasn’t stopped the Piston from dominating in the pick-and-roll, particularly when Cunningham gets Karl-Anthony Towns involved. Josh Hart and Miles McBride met similar fates, as Cunningham averaged 31 points per game on absurd efficiency for the season series.

I don’t think those are feasible long-term solutions, which brings me to a far more interesting matchup. When (and how much) will Thibodeau unleash OG Anunoby on Cunningham?

Anunoby didn’t make one of my All-Defense teams, which people took as some sort of slander despite the fact I had him as a Perimeter Defensive Player of the Quarter and All-Defensive team member in 2023-24. I don’t think he’s been as good night in and night out as last year (for what it’s worth, the advanced numbers agree with me). And it’s worth noting that Cunningham had his way with Anunoby at times this season, too:

That said, Anunoby’s ceiling is as high as any defender who has graced this space-rock. If he’s fully and completely locked in, there isn’t a better wing defender in the league. Detroit can’t win if Cunningham doesn’t score. Knicks fans should hope that Thibodeau is more willing to play this card. For the second year in a row, I wonder how flexible he’ll be with his dogma.

The best offensive players can always make magic happen, no matter who is tugging their jersey. This will be a good litmus test to see if Cunningham has hit that level.

Bonus question: will we see more of the Towns/Mitchell Robinson two-big pairing in this series? Towns was eviscerated in the pick-and-roll during these matchups, but things get a lot trickier for Detroit with Robinson lurking in the paint as the last line of defense. Even if Cunningham can discard Bridges or Anunoby, it’s one thing to score at the rim against the departed Jericho Sims and another entirely to do so against Robinson.

X-Factor: Tobias Harris

For all of Detroit’s success in the regular season, New York is rightfully favored in this series. If the Pistons are to surprise Vegas, they’ll need Tobias Harris to step up (Philly fans, stop laughing).

Anunoby typically guarded Harris and more or less shut him down in their matchups. Harris did score 17 in the one game they played in which Anunoby was absent, which could be a sign of things to come if Anunoby plays more on Cunningham.

Harris is at his best when he can use his size. Anunoby is too strong for that, but both Bridges and Josh Hart (if that’s who draws the Harris assignment) can be overpowered:

It’s no coincidence that Detroit’s best stretch came in the season’s third quarter, when Harris played elite ball. If he can be a legitimate scoring threat, it’ll reduce some of the burden on Cunningham and open things up for Detroit’s shooters, like Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr., on the perimeter.

3) Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6) Minnesota Timberwolves

Season series: 2-2

These guys have only played one game since the Luka Doncic trade, and that was a nine-point Lakers win over a Wolves team missing Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle, and Anthony Edwards (after he was ejected in the third quarter). Not a lot to take from those meetings.

The Lakers likely have the two best players in the series, but Anthony Edwards just dunked me into oblivion for typing that. The fiery Timberwolf can be the top two-way player in any playoff series he’s in, and he’s led the Wolves to an 8-1 record over their final nine games.

Key Question: Can the Wolves slow Austin Reaves?

LeBron James will get his against Julius Randle or Edwards. Luka Doncic has usually been able to overpower Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If the Wolves let Austin Reaves run loose, too, they won’t have a prayer.

Traditional matchups suggest that Mike Conley will guard Reaves. With the way Reaves has been scoring the ball recently, that may not be feasible. Expect heavy doses of Donte DiVincenzo and Alexander-Walker on Reaves, particularly if he comes out firing.

Reaves had two quiet games against Minny this year and one monster match in which he drew 12 free throws. (Minnesota must keep their composure with the refs, something Edwards and Randle have struggled to do at times.) The Lakers are 27-9 when Reaves scores 20+ this season; he’s the bellwether for this team.

I’m still shocked at how Reaves has thrived next to Doncic. Since February, he’s averaged more than 22 points per game on calculator-breaking efficiency. He’s been a superb foul-drawer since his college days, but now he can leverage all the defensive attention that James and Doncic draw on the perimeter to saunter to the hoop at will. The two super-duper-stars spend long stretches letting Reaves cook, and why not? Every time he gets to the line allows them catch a breather:

Reaves has become one of the most interesting third bananas in the league; these playoffs will go a long way to proving if he’s one of the best.

X-Factor: Julius Randle