Grading my 2025-26 unlikely-but-plausible predictions

Accountability matters

LeBron James’ “final decision” may or may not have held up the league’s official schedule, but it definitely slowed my annual unlikely-but-plausible prediction grades. Thankfully, we now have a full quorum of results to adjudicate.

Every year, I take a stab at more than a dozen surprising preseason predictions — it was 16 this year. I aim to get about a quarter of them right. If I hit on too many, I wasn’t being brave enough, but if I hit too few, I wasn’t being realistic.

It’s a fine line to trundle. Last year, I had several devastating close misses. This year, I fared quite a bit better! If you want to go back and see my initial reasoning for all of the below prognostications, you can find my original article here.

1) Nikola Jokic doesn’t lead the league in on/off splits

Jokic had led the entire NBA in on/off point differential for four straight years heading into 2025-26. Surely, with a revamped supporting cast featuring Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown, plus growth from youngsters like Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson, he’d fall to at least second, right? There was simply no way one guy could lead the league in on/off for half a decade, through coaching changes and all-new rosters and a swirl of competitive ebbs and flows. Either he wouldn’t be that good, or the bench wouldn’t be that bad (hopefully the latter).

Wrong. Once again, the Denver Nuggets’ superstar represented the widest swing in the league, with a point differential of +16.3 from Cleaning the Glass (min. 1,000 minutes, excluding garbage time).

Now, I wasn’t totally off-base. That +16.3 is actually his lowest number by far during this stretch (with 2021-22’s +19.5 coming in second-lowest; for context, his top teammates that year by minutes were Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Monte Morris, Jeff Green, and Austin Rivers). The Nuggets without Jokic had a -4.8 net rating, which is normal-bad and far better than they’d been in previous years. And Jokic’s +7.0 on/off in the 2026 playoffs was nowhere near the top of the postseason leaderboard.

But this is me trying to salvage some dignity. I couldn’t fathom this happening a fifth straight time, and it did.

Verdict: Sigh.

2) Shaedon Sharpe makes the All-Star game

I really, really wanted to put a different Canadian here in Jokic’s teammate Jamal Murray, but that didn’t feel adventurous enough (and I didn’t want to double-dip on Nuggets predictions).

I should’ve taken the safer pick.

Sharpe didn’t have a disastrous season, putting up more than 20 points per game and continuing to succeed at the rim despite Portland’s shrink-wrap spacing. But his jumper looks prettier than it is, the defense is persistently inattentive, and the playmaking and ballhandling remain undesirable:

The physical gifts are marvelous, and he’s not as inefficient as you’d expect for someone shooting a high volume of sub-40% jumpers (he’s at the positional median for points per shot attempt). But the lack of processing and technical skill hold him back.

Without another move, Portland’s upcoming backcourt jam (which features Ja Morant and Damian Lillard joining Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson) could leave Sharpe the odd man out.

Verdict: Incorrect.

3) Boston avoids the play-in

Call this “Just a Girl,” because it’s my first no-doubt hit!

It’s hard to remember now, but there were a lot of smart people who expected and/or wanted Boston to tank — leaving aside whether they’d even be any good at all without former stalwarts Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and Jayson Tatum (for most of the year).

I had faith in Joe Mazzulla and assumed that the rest of the East wouldn’t be particularly great during the regular season. Even I didn’t see the Celtics’ resounding success coming, however.

Boston stormed through the conference and finished second in the standings. They were the betting favorites to win the East. (Celtics fans, stop reading here.) Then, the good times stopped. Their implosion against Philly in the first round, blowing a 3-1 series lead, set the stage for the fascinating Jaylen Brown trade. They enter the 2026-27 season full of question marks.

Of course, none of that matters for these purposes!

Verdict: Ding ding ding!

4) Leaguewide offensive rebounding hits 30%

Every year, I make this prediction. 30% hasn’t been topped since the brickfest slug-it-outs of 2004-05, but offensive rebounding has been on the rise as teams prioritize the possession game again.

Sadly, the league failed me yet again, just missing the mark at 29.0%. One year, it’ll happen, and the preceding 15 years of mispredictions will have all been justified.

Verdict: One day…

5) San Antonio jumps 20 spots, has a top-five defense

Got it! The Spurs finished third in defensive rating this past season after finishing 25th the year prior.

My preseason expectations played out more or less exactly as I’d hoped. The team was a monster with Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama healthy (he played 64 games compared to the previous season’s 46), and they remained mostly competitive with Luke Kornet in his place.

The supporting cast all improved, too. De’Aaron Fox was a huge defensive upgrade over the loathsome Chris Paul (remember when he started 82 games for the Spurs two years ago?). Devin Vassell made huge strides, Dylan Harper was excellent off the bench, and Steph Castle became one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Even coach Mitch Johnson proved up to the task in his first full season as head coach.

Hindsight makes this prediction seem a lot more obvious than it was at the time, I swear.

Verdict: Nailed it.

6) Keegan Murray gets four years, $110 million (or AAV equivalent)

Just days after writing this prediction, Murray landed a five-year, $140 million contract. I estimated $27.5 million in average annual value, and he got $28 million. Bucket!

Now, will Murray be worth this money is an entirely different question. After three years of sterling health, Murray played just 23 games last season. Still, 25-year-old 6’8” wings with some shooting and some defensive chops don’t grow on trees.

Verdict: I’m proud of this one.

7) Brice Sensabaugh leads the Jazz in scoring*

The asterisk here represented a clause stipulating this would only count if Lauri Markkanen were traded.

But I aim for real intellectual accountability with this entire column. While Sensabaugh would’ve been close (he averaged 19.7 points per game in 34 matches played without Markkanen), the leading Jazzman would’ve clearly been Keyonte George (who averaged 23.3 points in his 14 games played without Markkanen).

I talked about George’s breakout year around Christmas¹, and he made massive strides for Utah. Even with Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. in the fold, two recent All-Stars, and hyped #2 pick Darryn Peterson (whose game does overlap quite a bit with George), the rising fourth-year vet has a chance to be the team’s best player next year.

So while I want to give myself a pass on this one, I’ll go ahead and accept I would’ve been wrong.

Verdict: Sportsman of the Year over here, I know.

8) VJ Edgecombe wins the dunk contest

This was a foolish thing to even attempt to predict. Turns out, Edgecombe had no interest in the dunk contest, even though he would’ve been very good. He declined to participate. Hard to win if you don’t play!

Verdict: Didn’t even get off the ground — literally.

9) The Hornets have the worst defense in the league

Sometimes, I amaze myself. This prediction couldn’t have been much worse if I’d tried.

In my defense, a Hornets roster that finished 24th in defensive rating the year prior didn’t look capable of playing good defense. LaMelo Ball? A rookie Kon Knueppel? An unproven (and, it turns out, underrated) center rotation? How would they generate stops?

I wrote a whole thing about it, and I’m still not sure. Give coach Charles Lee mountains of credit for not just avoiding the basement but finishing with an above-average defensive rating (11th).

Verdict: Almost impossibly wrong.

10) LeBron James leaves Los Angeles in the postseason, signs with Cleveland

Well, I was half-right.