Predicting the NBA’s Top 10 Defenses for 2026-27

A few days ago, we projected next season’s Top 10 Offenses. It got a little kooky. This week, we’re using our cubic zirconia ball to survey the other end of the court.

Last year’s 10 best defensive ratings belonged, in order, to OKC, Detroit, San Antonio, Houston, Boston, Minnesota, Toronto, Atlanta, Phoenix (take a bow, Jordan Ott!), and New York.

Of those, only four (OKC, Houston, Boston, and Minnesota) were similarly successful in 2024-25 (although seven repeated from 2023-24 to 2024-25).

I’ll be honest: after the top two teams, this got really difficult, really fast. Wes Goldberg and I broke it all down on the RealGM Podcast, so check that out if you want to hear us go deeper on the teams below and a handful more (YouTube, Spotify, Apple Pods).

All numbers are from Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

You may be surprised to see the Thunder at the top of my list (which would be their third consecutive number-one finish), given they lost Lu Dort. But Cason Wallace is a flat-out better defender than Dort now, and the team should get far more (and far more effective) games from Jalen Williams, who was All-Defensive Second Team two years ago.

The Thunder contested everything without fouling (second-lowest eFG% allowed, second-lowest free throw rate) and also forced the second-most turnovers in the league behind only Detroit. And they did all this without much shooting luck: OKC walls off dribble penetration with sublime individual and team defense, forcing opponents to shoot more than 40% of their attempts from deep. And teams actually hit 37.1% of their triples against OKC, one of the league's higher marks!

But the Thunder will live with an extra three here or there if they can dominate at the rim. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein guarding the paint and a slew of long-armed wings lurking, the Thunder allowed just 60.2% shooting at the rim, more than 2.5% better than second-place Detroit. Crazy!

My jaw would crack the basement if the Thunder fall out of the top three this year.

2) San Antonio Spurs

Everything I’d hoped for the Spurs’ defense came true last year, and they still have plenty of upward potential.

Wemby stayed healthier (although, at just 64 games excluding the NBA Cup Final, he could play even more). Steph Castle and Dylan Harper looked like a lockdown duo, and Devin Vassell made a major leap on that end. (Julian Champagnie has always been underrated here.)

The vets, like De’Aaron Fox and Keldon Johnson, played at or above their historic levels (give or take Harrison Barnes, who was benched halfway through the season). Luke Kornet filled in admirably as a high-level defensive backstop in his own right.

None of that should change.

Even the Thunder occasionally run out softer targets like Jared McCain; the Spurs have no pigeons to hunt, and adding Tobias Harris to handle stronger power forwards alleviates the Spurs’ only marginal weakness.

Coach Mitch Johnson relies upon a hyper-conservative scheme that had San Antonio top three in eFG% allowed, foul rate, and defensive rebounding, but they never forced turnovers. With Wembanyama holding two giant erasers, ready to rectify any mistakes, I’d like to see the perimeter players (particularly Castle and Harper) given more license to go for steals. Create some mayhem, San Antonio!

Wes pointed out in the pod that Western Conference teams have spent all summer devising ways to mitigate Wemby’s monstrous defensive impact. Perhaps we see the league go toward more of a fullback strategy, using big galumphs to Gortat-screen Wemby out of the action with brutal physicality. Watch Rudy Gobert put on his best battering-ram impression:

If this becomes more common, San Antonio can always pour some French Vanilla into their coffee. We didn’t see much of the Kornet/Wemby duo last year (and things went terribly in the handful of possessions they did play together), but that’s another tactical lever for Johnson to pull if necessary.

Smart people would say not to mess with a system that generated the league’s only top-three offense and top-three defense. But I want to fly San Antonio’s kite even higher; if the cards fall right, this could become one of the greatest defenses of all time. Don’t limit yourself, Mitch Johnson!

I have to dock them a spot because they are still so reliant upon Wembanyama to maximize their potential. The Thunder’s defense has proven to be injury-proof, but if Wemby goes down for an extended stretch, the Spurs can’t reach their loftiest goals.

3) Houston Rockets

While I’m as leery as anyone about Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart taking minutes away from Reed Sheppard, whose development is critical to sustained Houston Rockets success, those two represent substantial upgrades for an already elite defense.

We won’t turn this into a referendum on Sheppard, who is an elite defensive playmaker but hopelessly outmatched one-on-one defender¹. Smart’s numbers last season paint the picture of an All-Defensive Team candidate, and even a diminished VanVleet should be stout on that end.

The trickle-down effect might matter even more. Amen Thompson was my DPOY two years ago, but I thought his increased offensive load last season hurt his defense. With less to shoulder, he should return to being a top-five guardsman in the league.

Jabari Smith isn’t my favorite player on either end, but most viewers agree he’s a very good, flexible defender. Tari Eason is a freight train spewing chaos everywhere he goes, and Jae’Sean Tate is a solid, positionally amorphous bench option.

Steven Adams and the underrated Alperen Sengun aren’t prototypical shot-blockers, but both bring enough to avoid being negatives. The bevy of perimeter talent mitigates the lack of high-flying rim protection.

Houston will miss Josh Okogie, and Kevin Durant will be another quarter-step slower. But coach Ime Udoka typically gets the best out of his guys defensively, and he has a lot of tools to work with this season.

4) Toronto Raptors

The Raptors were seventh in defense last year and are swapping out Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, and Sandro Mamukelashvili (three mediocre-at-best defenders) for Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Anderson, and Andre Jackson Jr. (three good-to-great ones).

I’m being a bit facetious, because Anderson and Jackson likely won’t play many minutes. But there’s still a bit of addition by subtraction here. Add in growth from last year’s standout rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, and perhaps a few more minutes for Ja’Kobe Walter, and I’m projecting elite things for this unit.

Toronto’s biggest strength will be off-ball/team defense, as they have a battalion of high-IQ defenders who can destroy plays before they happen, stick their hands in inconvenient places, and block shots at the rim. They should be a top-three turnover-forcing machine.

5) Boston Celtics

The C’s shockingly finished fifth in defensive rating in 2026, and I kind of think their personnel is better now. For my money, Paul George is a better overall defender than Jaylen Brown, and so is Jayson Tatum. The question is how available those two guys will be; whatever your feelings on Brown, at least he was always in uniform.

The team shored up the center position. Neemias Queta had one of the league’s highest defensive on/off splits last year, a testament to both his development and the team’s complete lack of a reliable backup rim protector. Queta should be even better this year after his first full year as a starter, and when he’s off the court, foes now have to deal with Mitchell Robinson coming in to club shots away.

Joe Mazzulla is an emotionless basketball murder-robot. He will suffer nothing but top effort from everyone. His inverted coaching philosophies always make me laugh; the Celtics love threes and midranges on offense, but on defense, they allow foes to take any jump shots they want in order to wall off the paint — opponents took just 24.3% of their shots at the rim against Boston, almost 4% fewer than second-place Sacramento(!?).

Still, the results speak for themselves. Boston’s been a top-five defensive team for five straight years, and outside of injury unluck, it’s hard for me to see them falling much further than that.

6) Miami Heat

Last year’s 13th-place finish broke a decade straight of top-10 defensive performances for Erik Spoelstra, dating back to 2015-16. I’m projecting a return to form.

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s defense had been slipping for a few seasons, but I thought he started 2025-26 with a vengeance before falling off due to injury and discontent. A motivated Giannis is still a highly impactful defender to flank perennial down-ballot DPOY candidate Bam Adebayo. Davion Mitchell is small but mighty at the point of attack, and Andrew Wiggins is a solid defensive option on the wing.

Pelle Larsson is the kind of scrappy, physical player opponents hate going against, and Dru Smith might be the best defender nobody has ever heard of:

I am worried that Miami’s bench leans more heavily toward the offense, limiting this team’s ceiling. But if Spoelstra decides to run Larsson or Smith out as the team’s fifth closer, Miami has a five-man defensive unit as good as anyone this side of San Antonio and OKC.

If you’re looking for that one tentpole defensive skill, the Heat should be one of the league's best rebounding teams.

7) Detroit Pistons

Cade Cunningham is a positive defender at point guard, Ausar Thompson came in third in Defensive Player of the Year voting, and Jalen Duren took substantial strides last year (if Duren leaves, all bets are off). I also love Daniss Jenkins’ full-court pressure off the bench, and Ron Holland would garner All-Defensive Team attention with slightly more discipline (and opportunity). Coach JB Bickerstaff is elite at wringing every ounce of defensive talent out of his guys.

The Pistons will miss Tobias Harris’ steady ballast, and although Isaiah Stewart disappointed in the playoffs, he was one of the league’s best regular-season defenders. Detroit also had major shooting luck — opponents only hit 34.4% of their triples against the Pistons. I toyed with dropping the Pistons out of the top 10 entirely. But with Paul Reed taking Isaiah Stewart’s minutes, I think they’ll be just as good, if not better, at their core strength: forcing turnovers, where they beat out even the slavering hellhounds in Oklahoma.

A team’s culture comes from its coach and best player, both of whom are committed to the defensive end. The Pistons will be worse, perhaps substantially, than last year’s second-place finish, but they could drop off a good bit and still be above average.

8) New York Knicks

The same concerns I have with the Knicks’ maintaining an excellent offense apply here, too. To quote myself: “Championship teams often perform worse and become more injury-prone the following year due to some combination of the Plexiglass principle², the wear and tear of a long season, and diminished motivation.”

The Knicks put the screws to every offense they faced in the playoffs. They’ve proven they can clamp down at the highest level… so it's natural for them to exhale a little this regular season. Plus, Mitchell Robinson isn’t around anymore, and even prime Andre Drummond couldn’t have filled those shoes. This version has no chance whatsoever.

Still, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart are an elite trio on the wing, coach Mike Brown figured out how to unlock Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jalen Brunson at least falls down and takes a lot of charges. I don’t feel great about keeping the Knicks this high, but it’s hard to find a compelling case to put too many teams over the defending champs, either.

9) Memphis Grizzlies

This is entirely dependent on Zach Edey playing 60 games, so right off the bat, you know it’s a terrible idea.

But in nearly 600 possessions last year, the Grizzlies had a 95.1 defensive rating with Edey on the court. That is 12 points better than OKC’s league-leading 107.3 season-long mark.

Small sample size, shooting luck, yada yada yada. The Grizzlies will suffer from Jaren Jackson Jr.’s absence, but on a microscopic sample, Memphis was actually even better with Edey on and JJJ off than with both together.

And Memphis has depth. Cedric Coward was rather good as a rookie and should improve in Year Two (although I’d love to see his puzzlingly low steal rate improve). Scottie Pippen Jr. will be a plus at point guard. Jaylen Wells will be healthy and effective on the wing. And the team even brought in Beef Stew to block shots and scare the living sh*t out of opponents in case Edey misses time!

Edey moves too fast for a man his size. Even when he looks beat, he just flips his hips and flyswats pesky floaters like King Kong versus an airplane:

The Grizzlies were 25th last year; asking for the top 10 might be a bridge or two too far. But San Antonio leapt from 25th two years ago to third last season, and that was with the Spurs only gaining an incremental 18 games from Wemby. Imagine if the Grizzlies get an extra 50 from Edey?

10) Orlando Magic

While the Magic did get 57 games out of perpetually injured Jalen Suggs, who’d run through a brick wall head-first if it ended with him getting a fingertip on a pass, they only received 34 from Franz Wagner, arguably their best overall defender.

The Magic are absolutely massive and had posted the second-best defensive rating in the league in each of the two years prior to last. They forced a metric ton of turnovers and dysoned up every loose ball and errant shot, dominating the possession game. I don’t think they’ll reach those same heights. But new coach Sean Sweeney is supposedly a defensive mastermind, and he benefits from being Not Jamahl Mosley³.

This is a make-or-break season for the Magic. They went all-in on the present with the Desmond Bane trade last summer, but Wagner’s playoff injury short-circuited whatever potential they had. Injuries can only be used as an excuse so many times.

If Orlando is to compete in a heavily fortified East, they’ll need to go back to their defensive roots.

Tough Cuts

Minnesota Timberwolves

Going from Julius Randle to Jonathan Kuminga is a wash with upside; going from Donte DiVincenzo (82 games!) to LaMelo Ball is a huge downgrade even if Ball retains his effort level from last year. Rudy Gobert is still incredible, but he’s another year older. The drop-off with big men is a cliff we never see coming until it’s there. Can Joan Beringer, about to assume 18 minutes per night, stop fouling everything in sight?

The Wolves have top-five defensive upside if everything goes right, but a lot of moving parts need to click into place.

Atlanta Hawks

This might be a little unfair.

I was a little worried that their ninth-place finish last season was boosted too much by a cupcake schedule down the stretch, but the Hawks ranked about the same against top-10 offenses, too (11th, if we’re being technical).

The Hawks are bringing back all their most important pieces from last year and added Lu Dort. I’m not sure how the backcourt minutes will shake out, given how many talented guards there are, but I do know adding Dort is unlikely to make the defense worse.

Still, Jalen Johnson (a defensive disappointment to me last year even given his spectacular offensive output) and CJ McCollum provide places to attack, and Onyeka Okongwu, while far better than I expected last season, needs to prove to me that he can do it again.

Phoenix Suns

The Suns tried like all hell last year, but can sheer scrapitude work again? They snuck up on the league last season, but they’re unlikely to do so again. A healthier Jalen Green will likely hurt the defense, too, though I wonder if they’ll fare better on that end without the injured Mark Williams at center. Losing Royce O’Neale and Grayson Allen for Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard is a downgrade, too.

1. Sheppard could be a fantastic cloak-and-dagger defender on a team with a different defensive structure and an elite shotblocker behind him! But this isn’t that team.

2. A Bill James baseball term meaning teams that get better one year tend to get worse the next, and vice versa — basically, a more fun way of saying regression to the mean.

3. I really like Mosley! I think he’s an excellent defensive coach in particular, and he could have a transformative effect on New Orleans’ sad-sack defense. But there was too much tension in the Orlando locker room, and the players had, if not tuned him out entirely, at least put their AirPods in when he tried to talk to them.