Picking the NBA’s top-10 offenses for 2026-27

The Spurs, the Nuggets... the Jazz?! The Raptors?!?!

With the Kawhi trade finalized and Media Day just a week or two away for every team, rosters are pretty much set. Now, we can start really digging into the upcoming season. And what better way to do that than by predicting which offenses will be next year’s most electric attacks?

(I talked with Wes Goldberg on RealGM Radio about this exact topic, so listen there for an expanded conversation and to see where reasonable minds violently differed. I didn’t even have his number-one offense in my top 10! Spotify, YouTube, Apple Pods)

As a baseline, here were last year’s top-10 offenses, in order: Nuggets, Celtics, Spurs, Knicks, Hornets, Thunder, Rockets, Cavaliers, Lakers, and Pistons. Five of those ten were in the top third of the league the year before, too (Denver, OKC, New York, Boston, Cleveland). You’ll see some of those same names, but there will be a few surprises.

Before you get mad, remember, we’re splitting hairs here; last year, the third-best offense had a 120.3 offensive rating, and the tenth-best offense posted a 118.3. So don’t sweat the individual placements too much unless you think I’m way off course (in which case, lecture me in the comments!). This is more of a thought exercise than a true prediction, because there’s far too much variability to nail these things down with any certainty.

Let’s start at the top. All numbers are from Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise noted.

1. San Antonio Spurs

Incredibly, last season’s Spurs were third offensively, leaning on some crazy role inversion in which their rim pressure came from their guards and their spacing came from the frontcourt. Plus, you know, they had their alien in the middle (and on the perimeter, and in the corner, and…)

Without diminishing the threat of his off-the-dribble jumper, Wembanyama took fewer threes and asserted himself in the paint, a positive move given he makes three-quarters of his at-rim attempts. With a mostly healthy season and playoff run under his belt, he should find the right balance from the jump.

The same goes for his supporting cast. The whole Spurs team is back, and coach Mitch Johnson will be better for his many successes and few failures. The Spurs have no real weaknesses; they’re the only team that was in the top-10 in all the offensive Four Factors¹, and there’s still plenty of room for internal growth.

San Antonio also had a top-quartile offense without Wembanyama, so I’m comfortable having them here even if Wemby misses a few weeks.

Adding Tobias Harris might hurt spacing a bit if he starts over Julian Champagnie, but he’ll be a killer secondary creator off the bench. I expect at least one of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper to develop into a real All-Star (yes, I know, Fox got in as an injury replacement last season). Both Castle and Harper showed enough as three-point shooters for me to reasonably factor in some progression, and both are already rabid Rabbids driving to the paint:

In fact, both youngsters took a higher share of shots at the rim than Wembanyama. That says a lot more about them than him!

Maybe they won’t be first, but is there a reasonable case against the Spurs being even an average offense aside from catastrophic injury? I can’t see one.

2. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have been a top-10 attack every season since Jokic’s sophomore campaign and top-five for four straight years. I’m definitely concerned about the lack of Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas. Still, Cam Johnson found his stride toward the end of the season, and Aaron Gordon will probably play more than 36 games (he hadn’t played fewer than 50 since his rookie season).

I’m not certain if new addition DeMar DeRozan will be a net positive or net negative, but at the very least, he should prop up the bench units. He remains an excellent individual scorer and foul-drawer who should excel in a smaller role, particularly if he’s feasting on backups.

The Nuggets were last year’s number-one attack even with Jokic missing an uncharacteristic number of games. If he’s ambulatory, they could easily be the league's best offense again. The Nuggets ranked top-five in effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, and free-throw rate. Gordon’s availability should boost the lone culprit, offensive rebounding.

And they weren’t just beating up on the dregs. They were the best offense against top-10 teams!

Christian Braun needs to step up, but they’ve been an elite offense with him in the past. The lack of depth and ballhandling is concerning, and any step back from Jokic or Jamal Murray (coming off a career-best year) would hurt.

But I learned last year that betting against regular-season Jokic is a fool’s errand, so I’m taking the jester’s hat off this year.

3. Boston Celtics

Surprised? Me, too.

But even with last year’s diminished Jayson Tatum, the Celtics had a top-decile offense with Tatum on the court and Jaylen Brown off. Hell, they were 87th percentile without either player (almost entirely against bench units, but still!). We’re gonna see a whole lot more of those permutations this year, particularly if Tatum and Paul George struggle to stay healthy.

Prepare your mind; Payton Pritchard could lead the team in scoring for a month solely on 30-foot pull-ups with 20 seconds left on the shot clock:

The C’s will cradle the ball like a newborn baby (second-lowest turnover rate last season), swirl a dollop of Mitchell Robinson in to bolster the already elite offensive rebounding, and hope for bounce-back shooting seasons from Tatum and Derrick White. Plus, if Mike Conley can give them anything as a reserve pure point guard and leader, it’ll ease the burden on White and Pritchard.

The Celtics have been a top-four regular-season offense each year under Joe Mazzulla, and there are few reasons to expect change.

If we’re playing devil’s advocate, those reasons include: