Re-grading the biggest 2024 NBA trades

A look back at what did and didn't go according to expectations

Here at Basketball Poetry, I try to maintain at least a modicum of accountability. When I make unlikely-but-plausible predictions or hand out an arkload of trade grades, you’d better believe I’ll circle back to check myself. (This year, as you’ll see, I check myself right into the boards like an ornery hockey enforcer).

With that in mind, let’s revisit three of the more impactful midseason swaps from last year and see how they turned out compared to my expectations. I purposefully picked two of the trades I was most incorrect about, as it’s more educational to see where and why things went off the rails.

I always say grading trades when they happen is a fool’s errand; the re-grades consistently bear that out.

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Dallas Mavericks receive: forward PJ Washington, two second-rounders

Charlotte Hornets receive: Grant Williams, Seth Curry, 2027 top-two protected first-round pick

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Original Mavs grade: C+
New Mavs grade: A

Original Hornets grade: A
New Hornets grade: B+

It’s funny. Although much of my reasoning was correct a year ago, my conclusion was incorrect. I noted that Washington was an underrated defender with some scoring chops who should fit into what Dallas was doing on both sides; I just worried the price was high and Dallas would need a lot to go right to justify paying it.

That top-two protected pick was and is juicy. If they’d kept it, the Mavs could have had three tradeable first-round picks this past summer to try and acquire a bigger name. And although the Grant Williams experience had run its course in Dallas, he was still a solid rotation NBA player who performed well in Charlotte until his injury this season.

Well, a lot did go right. Washington was a critical part of Dallas’ surge to the NBA Finals, and he’s also a big reason they’ve played so well this year, even with injuries to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. He’s been better defensively than even I expected, and while the shot has come and gone, he’s been relatively steady this year, hitting 36% from deep on okay-ish volume. Dallas would not have beaten Oklahoma City in last year’s ‘yoffs without Washington’s constant splashdowns from deep.

The Mavs also landed several helpful pieces in the offseason, like Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes, and Naji Marshall, which they wouldn’t have been able to do if they’d made a monster trade for someone else instead — Washington is on a very cheap contract for this season and next.

Finally, after I originally graded the trade, reporting came out that the Mavericks also received two second-round picks! It’s never a bad thing to have more seconds, which are the KY Jelly needed to grease trade wheels (I might be doing that wrong).

There’s a small chance that the ‘27 draft pick ends up being someone incredible, but by the time they end up a useful player, Luka Doncic will likely be in his early 30s. Dallas needs to maximize their current window, and the Washington trade was far more successful than I expected (the move for center Daniel Gafford helped, too, but Gafford was much less of a positive playoff factor).

We don’t have much new info on Charlotte’s return as the pick hasn’t conveyed yet, but the Mavs’ team success increases the likelihood that Doncic stays in Dallas and that the team remains good. With one more year of clarity, it seems less likely that ‘27 pick will be high-end. However, the upside of only a top-two protection is still a nice return for a player like Washington, who at the time wasn’t a certainty to return a first-round pick at all.

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New York Knicks receive: OG Anunoby, backup point guard Malachi Flynn, and big man Precious Achiuwa

Toronto Raptors receive: Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Immanuel Quickley, forward RJ Barrett, and the Pistons’ 2024 second-round pick

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Original Knicks grade: A
New Knicks grade: A

Original Raptors grade: C+
New Raptors grade: C-

Let’s start with the obvious. OG Anunoby is the best player in this deal. He’s been everything the Knicks hoped for, particularly last season. This season, the long-range shooting numbers have dropped to a concerning degree (just 34%), but he’s still a premier defender with underrated paint-scoring abilities:

Precious Achiuwa hasn’t been a huge difference-maker, but he’s one of the few bench pieces that Tom Thibodeau trusts to any degree at all, so that’s a win in itself. New York makes this trade again in a heartbeat, even if they had to pay Anunoby quite the pretty penny to keep him in town.

For the Raptors, I didn’t like this trade in the first place, and I like it less now. Barrett was awesome for Toronto last season, but he’s been building brick houses this year while overtaxed as Toronto’s only ambulatory on-ball creator. The boost in playmaking he’s shown is fun, but if the Raptors are healthy, he’ll be a tertiary playmaker behind Quickley and centerpiece Scottie Barnes at best; it pains me to say this, but passing just isn’t that important compared to other skills for players lower in the pecking order.

I was never overly fond of Quickley in New York relative to the tremendous hype he received, and he’s been about what I expected in his rare healthy appearances. He’s missed all but nine games this year thanks to injuries (he was generally quite durable in the Big Apple), but even last year, he struggled mightily on defense and getting to the rim. At least the three-point shot looked good last year; Toronto desperately needs spacing. Quickley isn’t a bad player, but he’s ill-suited to be a team’s second- or third-best player, which is how the Raptors have positioned him.

The worst thing is that the Raptors’ trio of Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley have not had much time to play together since 12 months ago — fewer than 30 games (and a handful of those were with the since-departed Pascal Siakam). One or two of those three are seemingly always injured. I don’t think that core is particularly good anyway, but it would be nice to see them have a chance to prove me wrong.

After signing Quickley to a five-year, $162M extension, the Raptors will now be right around $100M owed annually to just Quickley, Barrett, and Barnes for years to come. Any of those contracts is defensible in a vacuum, but taken together, they represent a startling lack of value for the money (and that’s excluding nearly $20M per year for Jakob Poeltl).

That Pistons draft pick turned into Jonathan Mogbo, who has been a fun try-hard rookie for Toronto. But he may top out as a seventh or eighth man on a good team, so he can’t sway the grade here too much.

I understood the vision then; I just didn’t love it. Now, I’m starting to despise it (even while acknowledging that Anunoby’s expiring contract made him more difficult to trade). The move made even less sense given that the Raptors did eventually trade Pascal Siakam for picks, which would’ve signaled a full-blown rebuild if the Anunoby swap hadn’t happened first (I won’t re-grade the Siakam transaction, as my positive two-way feelings haven’t changed much, but it was a nice win-win for both Indiana and Toronto).

The good news: the Raptors have been so bad despite this win-now trade that they’ll still get a great draft pick (we’ll look past their failed tanktastic efforts to keep their pick last year). So, while moving Anunoby didn’t exactly jump-start a rebuild, it hasn’t decimated their ability to add at least one more talent.

There remains the possibility that Toronto will have some draft luck and find a superstar to pair with Barnes going forward, and this will all turn out okay in the end. But that leaves far too much to remote chance for my liking.

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Miami Heat receive: Terry Rozier

Charlotte Hornets receive: Kyle Lowry, lottery-protected first-round pick in 2027 that becomes unprotected in 2028 if it doesn’t convey

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Original Heat Grade: A-
New Heat Grade: F+

Original Hornets Grade: B
New Hornets Grade: A-

On paper, this seemed like a reasonable bet. A lottery-protected first for a surprisingly efficient three-level scorer with a defensive background that at least had some ups to go with the downs? Made a lot of sense, especially since Miami’s biggest weakness was a lack of guys who could dribble. The Heat were fresh off a Finals appearance and believed they could make their way through a weak-ish Eastern Conference; Rozier looked like a clear upgrade with the exact skill set the team needed.

After publishing my original analysis, I told my buddy I’d probably regret such a high grade. Was Rozier really that much of a needle-mover? Little did I know that he would dramatically move the needle in the wrong direction.

Rozier started slowly for Miami last year before picking it up. However, right when he started to get into the swing of things, he sustained a neck injury that never got right, keeping him from the playoffs entirely.

This season, Rozier has been a disaster. He’s shooting 40% from the field and 29% from three, never gets to the line, and is a turnstile defensively. Is it the neck still? He looks slow, and at 30 years old, his quickness might be gone. An inability to turn the corner has caused him to take some of the worst shots imaginable. This wasn’t a good idea in any era, much less the current one:

Rozier has played better off the bench, but it’s hard to have much faith in him. He has skittish feet; every jumper feels like a stepback or sidestep, even when he’s open!

What’s worse is that the selection Miami gave up might involuntarily become an unprotected 2028 pick. Miami still owes a lottery-protected pick to the Thunder this year that becomes unprotected in 2026 if not conveyed. Due to the NBA’s Stepien rule, an NBA team cannot trade its first-round pick in two consecutive years. So if Miami were to miss the playoffs this year, they’d keep their 2025 pick and have to give up their 2026 pick to the Thunder, which means they’d have to keep their pick in 2027, which means they’d have to give up their pick to Charlotte — unprotected! — in 2028.

So the Rozier trade did nothing for them last year, worsened their chances of making the playoffs this year (because he’s been genuinely atrocious), and might screw up future drafts. Yuck.

For Charlotte, the pick looks better all the time. The only disappointment is that they couldn’t flip Kyle Lowry for any value at all, having to buy him out at the deadline so he could sign with the 76ers.

There we have it! Hopefully, we’ll have some exciting trades to grade and then re-grade from the upcoming deadline.