The 2024 NBA season's happiest surprises

Fouls, the Thunder, a youth movement, and more

Supposedly, the key to happiness is managing expectations. That’s certainly true of sports. A fan of a seemingly lottery-bound team that makes an unexpected run to the playoffs will usually be happier than the fan of a team laden with championship hopes that loses in the conference championship. That’s just the way it goes.

The regular season is an exercise in seeing who or what can transcend their expected limitations. In that vein, there has been a lot to celebrate this season.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of the seeding stretch run and playoff basketball, I wanted to take a minute to savor the season’s pleasant surprises. Some are big, some are small, but they all contributed to my (and hopefully your) viewing enjoyment.

Did I miss any? Give me your favorite happy surprises in the comments!

1) Fouls are disappearing

One of the great misconceptions of NBA ball today is that offensive players are too good at drawing fouls. While that might (or might not) be true for the stars, we’ve actually been in a very low-infraction period for a while now. And since February, refs have swallowed their whistle whole, with just a hint of garlic salt and oregano to please the palate.

Tom Haberstroh

broke the story about the league’s decreased scoring in the last couple of months, and he points to a decrease in foul calls of all stripes as a major reason why. He later posited that this was the NBA’s attempt at a “pitch clock,” something to speed up the game. Click those links for the deep dive, as I don’t want to steal Tom’s thunder.

Other people jumped in. Sravan Pannala (@SravanNBA on X/Twitter) dove the deepest of anyone I’ve seen, and he finds some interesting stuff. Substack doesn’t play nice with X anymore, so here’s a screenshot:

Wow! We are seeing about four free throw attempts fewer per game than we were for the first half of the year (and that’s per team!), and we’re already in one of the lowest foul-call eras in NBA history. That, combined with a significantly slower pace of play, explains nearly all of the league’s massive dip in offense in the last two months:

Sravan also cuts this a bunch of different ways on his blog if you want to get into the weeds, and Tom makes an insightful argument that the pace is a result of fewer fouls, not an explicit cause of a scoring dip, but the point remains that everything seemingly stems from fewer whistles.

Whether it’s pure chance or a secret league mandate cracking down on fouls, it’s hard to argue with the results. There’s more physicality in today’s game (in a mostly good way, although there has been a noticeable uptick in injuries of late — is that related?), and fewer whistles mean longer stretches of just plain basketball. The viewing experience has undoubtedly improved of late. We’ll find out whether this is an anomaly or the new normal pretty soon.

2) The Thunder are rumbling

I had a debate with a buddy, O, this offseason. I considered myself high on the Thunder, but O tried convincing me there was a real shot that they could win the championship as soon as the 2023-24 season.

“Impossible,” I said, far too snidely. “They’re too young, and young teams never win. Three of their five starters can’t shoot, and they are relying upon a rookie coat hanger to play center. I like the Thunder, but they should be ecstatic with home-court advantage.”

Luckily for him, he ignored me and placed a bet (at very good odds) on the Thunder.

Experience may or may not still matter; the playoffs haven’t started yet, after all. But all of the tangible on-court problems have seemingly been solved. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has become a bonafide MVP favorite, and if the Thunder win the West, he might win the dang thing. He’s improved his shooting and become a defensive monster without sacrificing any of the syncopated driving ability he thrives on.

That coat hanger, Chet Holmgren, has been even better than expected, a knock-down shooter and ferocious rim protector from day one. And Lu Dort, who has long been an inconsistent Marcus Smart-like offensive player, cut out the worst shots from his diet and improved his three-point accuracy to 40% on solid volume. He’s legitimately one of the best 3-and-D players in the league after years of forgetting the “3” part.

Josh Giddey has not developed, but the staff has proven it’s comfortable sitting him when it matters for the likes of sharpshooting ghost Isaiah Joe; Giddey’s minutes will likely diminish significantly in the playoffs.

It’s still unlikely for anyone besides Denver to emerge from the West. The Thunder could fall to the third seed as easily as win the conference. And OKC still hasn’t passed a postseason test; a Round 1 matchup with LeBron James or Steph Curry is possible, which would be a heck of an introduction to the playoffs.

But that doesn’t mean OKC isn’t good enough to win a championship this year, much to my surprise. And with a silly amount of trade assets and draft picks going forward, we might be seeing the early stages of a future dynasty.

3) The youth are rising in Golden State

After two and a half seasons of trials and tribulations, third-year Jonathan Kuminga’s public announcement that he didn’t have faith in coach Steve Kerr to maximize his abilities finally got him a consistent spot in the rotation. He responded with the best basketball of his young career (possibly to Kerr’s chagrin).

Squeaky wheels get the grease, I suppose.

Kuminga has averaged about 20 points per game since then and has shown flashes of being a dominant scorer and individual defender. He hasn’t put it all together yet, but then again, he’s in the midst of his first real stretch of consistent playing time without worrying about a quick yank. Given the freedom to make some mistakes, Kuminga has been a critical catalyst in Golden State’s turnaround (16-8 in their last 24 games). Hard to ask for much more from him at this juncture.

Rookie Brandin Podziemski has been starting for Klay Thompson, and we’ve already gone over how awesome he has been treading in the footsteps of a legend. Fellow frosh Trayce Jackson-Davis has been a perfect fit on the second unit with Chris Paul. And even NBA Twitter obsession Moses Moody, a third-year player like Kuminga, has been earning a bit more tick of late.

The Warriors may or may not have what it takes to make a deep run this year, but if we think of this as a developmental phase for the quartet of youngsters in the rotation, things start to look more positive for next season. Steph Curry remains the league’s most unique offensive force, and Draymond Green has become underrated (even if it’s largely his own fault). A play-in team this season, they might be better next year with more availability from Green and seasoning for the young guys.

The West is loaded, so it’s nice to see Golden State finally acknowledge the obvious: the old guard can’t run it back by themselves. An infusion of fresh talent was sorely needed, and thankfully, they just had to look down the bench to find it.

4) The In-Season Tournament rocked

The In-Season Tournament (IST) was greeted with a lot of skepticism, some of it deserved. Ratings for the inaugural event were fine but not great. There was an adjustment period for fans.

But I loved everything about it.

Players and coaches took the games seriously, wanting the money and the novelty of being the first NBA Cup champions. We saw dramatic finishes, the rise of Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers, and a classic LeBron James performance culminating in his MVP trophy.

The courts were useful for helping viewers understand when an IST game was occurring, and the Vegas championship added spectacle. It turned December regular-season games into must-watch television — outside of Christmas Day, when was the last time that happened?

Adding stakes to the early regular season was awesome. Hopefully, next year’s tourney builds upon this year’s success.

5) Suggs’ shot has bolstered Orlando’s defense

I was not high on Orlando’s chances at the start of the year. In my annual preseason haikus column, I picked Orlando to come in 12th in the conference, saying:

“Either Franz Wagner or Paolo Banchero could make an All-Star leap this season in the Magic Kingdom, but for that to happen, someone in the backcourt has to hit a shot… if Jalen Suggs can be even a modest 36-37% on reasonable volume, it’ll make a huge difference for the rest of the team.”

Well, the terrific Suggs has hit a whopping 40% of his long balls on reasonable volume, and it has made a huge difference. Although Orlando’s offense has been a slog anyway, Suggs’ shooting solidifies his place in the rotation, allowing him to wreak havoc on opposing offenses for longer.

Last year, Suggs’ lack of shooting submarined the Magic’s offense so badly that even his menacing defense couldn’t keep the team above water, and he was often benched in situations where the team needed points. This season, he’s been one of the few buoyant forces on both ends of the floor.

The Magic’s defense has been utterly impenetrable, ranking fourth in the league. I discussed this at length at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed. The team continues to limit opponent shot attempts by dysoning up rebounds, forcing a gargantuan amount of turnovers, and using length to contest perimeter shots. Add it up, and the Magic allow the fewest opposing field goal attempts in the league.

Despite a 24th-ranked offense, the Magic are fighting with New York for the honor of hosting a first-round series. Even in an offensive era, teams can still ride an elite defense to a strong record.

Nearly the entire rotation is under 25, most substantially so, and second-year All-Star Paolo Banchero looks on track for superstardom. The future is pretty in The City Beautiful.