The 2026 lottery will be can't-miss television

Ecstasy! Despair! The potential destruction of the league! It's all on the table.

We’ve spent years waiting for this moment, and it’s almost here.

I know there is playoff basketball going on, but I can’t stop dreaming about the lottery this Sunday. (For thoughts on Knicks-76ers, Spurs-Wolves, Chris Finch, and the Denver Nuggets’ tumultuous offseason, make sure to catch my RealGM podcast Good Take on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the new YouTube channel, or anywhere else.)

The 2026 draft class has been so hyped for so long that teams have spent multiple seasons angling for an extra ping-pong ball or two. Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, Cam Boozer, Caleb Wilson, and many other talented players sparked the worst tankathon the league has ever seen, prompting public outcry and forcing the NBA to completely overhaul the lottery system (in a surprisingly good way!).

That said, none of the top players are surefire superstars. Questions about Peterson’s health and drive dogged him throughout a mysterious Kansas season, and his playmaking and defense were inconsistent. Wilson and Dybantsa’s shooting left something to be desired, while Boozer will need to prove he can defend against NBA athleticism.

But there is both quantity and quality at the top of the draft, and there’s a belief that many of these players can contribute to winning quickly. That’s more important than ever before to a group of lottery teams that universally will be trying to win games next season, whether to make a playoff run or simply to avoid next year’s newfangled “relegation zone” (which actually worsens the lottery odds for the worst teams). Trades made months or years ago will finally culminate. Dreams will be actualized; hopes will be dashed like a frustrated toddler’s toy against the unyielding concrete.

So, yeah, there’s a lot at stake! Let’s break it down from every perspective to see who has the most to gain or lose.

1) The Pacers and Clippers

I’ve talked about the trade between these teams before, but it’s still the most fascinating gamble I can remember. Indiana traded a 2026 top-four protected pick (plus a 2029 unprotected first) and Bennedict Mathurin to get Ivica Zubac. They proceeded to tank their faces off to maximize their odds of keeping this year’s spot.

If the Pacers drop to fifth or sixth (the lowest the pick can fall, thanks to Indiana’s second-worst record), they give up their selection to the Clippers.

In other words, the Pacers will either get a potential star to complement an almost-Finals-winning core, or they’ll get squat. The Clippers receive either a fantastic new running mate to jump-start a rebuild alongside Darius Garland (or bolster a fringe playoff contender with Kawhi Leonard), or they have to wait until 2031, when the pick will otherwise convey.

Indiana has a 52.1% to keep their pick. The Clippers have a 47.9% chance of snagging it. The long-term futures of these franchises depend on flipping a coin with a weather-worn tails side. It’s ridiculous!

2) The league

As good as the Oklahoma City Thunder are, there’s a chance they get even better. The Clippers’ surge after they banished Chris Paul (5-16 with Paul, 37-24 without him) likely saved them the humiliation of handing the Thunder a top-four pick, but OKC still has a 7.1% chance at a miracle. And even their most likely selection, the 12th spot, could land them cheap depth or something better; the Thunder’s own Jalen Williams was the 12th pick a few seasons ago, after all.

If all else fails, OKC has the capital (and, reportedly, the will) to package together future picks and/or current players to move up in the draft. Despite all their success and asset accumulation, they’ve actually had some bad luck with pick protections and the lottery in the past few years;¹ I have this hunch we’ll see Presti do something funky.

3) The Wizards and Jazz

Despite their disgusting record and many, many blowout losses the last few seasons, Washington has a pretty interesting young core ready to complement a burgeoning superstar. Trae Young and Anthony Davis were big-name additions to the team (and ones that look a little wiser after the league flattened the lottery odds going forward), but those guys are merely bridges to the future. They can eat innings while Dybantsa or Peterson or Boozer or whoever learns the superstar ropes.

Meanwhile, Kyshawn George and Alex Sarr have the microwavable ballhandling, defensive, and shooting chops to fit next to any kind of player. Tre Johnson and Will Riley showcased vaulted ceilings as rookies, and Jamir Watkins and Justin Champagnie bring a fun bit of nasty. (I don’t know what to make of Bilal Coulibaly anymore.)

The Jazz are in a somewhat similar situation. They traded for Jaren Jackson Jr. to complement Lauri Markkanen, the rising Keyonte George, and Walker Kessler in a sign that their tanking ways are over, but they have this one last bite at the apple.

This isn’t technically a make-or-break year for the Wizards or Jazz. But they’ve been perhaps the two unluckiest lottery teams in NBA history; here’s hoping that streak ends Sunday.

4) The Kings, Nets, and Bulls

Look, I don’t want to condemn a talented rookie to basketball purgatory, but these fanbases need hope. Only glasses with actual roses in them could see the Kings’ Nique Clifford or Bulls’ Matas Buzelis turning into a future tentpole superstar. Brooklyn somehow drafted five guys in the first round last season, and I don’t think any will make the All-Rookie teams (although Egor Demin deserves to).

The 2027 and 2028 drafts don’t exactly have the draftniks humming. For three franchises that desperately need a difference-maker, this could be the last chance to grab one for a long while. Feelings will almost certainly be hurt on Sunday.

5) The Bucks and Hawks

Atlanta gets the best of New Orleans and Milwaukee’s picks, which equates to a roughly 40% chance of a top-four spot. The Bucks get the lesser.

A high lottery choice (unlikely as it is, given that it also would require New Orleans’ pick to jump up) could fast-forward a Cream City rebuild that hasn’t even started yet. It’s as simple as that.

(Please, please, please just divorce with Giannis; I can’t handle any more of this he-said, he-said stuff. And for the love of the basketball gods, don’t flip a top pick in a short-sighted move to keep him happy for three months.)

The Hawks, on the other hand, have a talented, still-developing core that just made the playoffs. Getting a top-tier perimeter threat could make them a mainstay in the postseason for years to come.

6) The Grizzlies

The Grizzlies aren’t quite the same as the handful of teams above. They already have Zach Edey and Cedric Coward, two talented youngsters (although Edey’s health history is already extremely depressing). More importantly, Ja Morant remains employed by the team, although neither he nor the franchise seems particularly excited about that fact.

There’s plenty of young role-player talent on this squad, but they feel a little stuck until Morant is dislodged one way or another. Drafting his replacement would go a long way toward lubricating the rebuild’s engine.

7) The Warriors and Heat

Two veteran teams that have refused to play the tanking game could still desperately use an infusion of upside. Whether to bolster fading cores or to pivot to a rebuild, the faded lions could develop a whole new outlook on life with the same kind of magic that Dallas pulled off last lottery.

Wouldn’t it be fun to watch the Warriors draft Stephen Curry’s heir? Wouldn’t it be intriguing to see the Heat’s fabled development program mold a top pick instead of mid-first-rounders and undrafted players?

That said, it’s just as likely that the teams would use a top-four selection as trade bait for a star like Giannis. And trades are always fun.

8) The Hornets

Charlotte was one of last season’s most enjoyable stories before fizzling out right at the end, but this is a power-forward-heavy draft class tailor-made for a team that desperately needs to improve its frontcourt.

Few squads are more capable of quickly integrating someone like local hero Caleb Wilson right into the rotation. I loved watching the Hornets play ball last season, and I hope they can build into something even stronger.

9) The Mavericks

The Mavs, who memorably beat less than 2% odds to win the lottery last season after the Luka Doncic trade, don’t deserve more lottery luck. But deserves got nothin’ to do with it.

With Kyrie Irving likely back at something close to full strength, a summer of development under Cooper Flagg’s belt, and a better-than-you-remember collection of role players (PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively, Max Christie, Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson), the Mavericks can’t help but be relevant next season. Throwing a guy like Peterson into the mix might make some believers become atheists, but it would be interesting.

Dallas doesn’t need the leap quite as badly as most teams, however, as the second tier of prospects in this draft includes a bunch of promising guards. They’ll be okay with anything other than a massive slide.

10) Us

If you’re a fan of one of the above teams, you’ll obviously be hoping for specific outcomes. But there are two things that almost everyone should be rooting for: OKC not to jump up (it’s not personal, but how much richer can the rich get?), and chaos.

Last year’s lottery was absolutely insane. This year has the potential to be even wilder, for good or for ill. The drama should make for exhilarating television.

I’ll be back next week with actual playoff analysis. Until then…

1. One memorable example came just last year, when Philadelphia shockingly jumped up to the #3 spot and saved their top-six-protected pick from conveying to OKC. The on-air announcer didn’t even realize the 76ers had kept their pick, and Daryl Morey’s exhausted, relieved head-hang is imprinted indelibly into my mind.

OKC had Philadelphia’s pick this year, too, but the 76ers surprised many by sneaking into the playoffs despite another absence-riddled season, so that’s locked at 17.

The Thunder also had the Jazz’s pick this year if it fell outside of the top eight, but Utah worked extra hard down the stretch to ensure that it wouldn’t. They even won a coin flip breaking a tie with the Sacramento Kings, which ensures that the Jazz have the fourth-best odds of the #1 pick and can’t fall further than eighth.

As well-situated for the future as OKC is, there are many timelines where the league is even more damned.