The remaining NBA Round 2 previews: a question and an X-Factor

It's gettin' real

Round 2 of the playoffs is where things really get fun. Eight teams left out of 30. Now, even lower-seeded teams are just a couple of hot shooting nights or a freak injury away from a conference finals appearance.

I just went 3,600 words on Nuggets/Wolves, and honestly? That was too long. Resulted in me doing stuff like saying “looms” three times in two paragraphs. So, let’s tighten it up and return to my preferred preview format: one key question and one X-Factor for each series.

1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 5 Dallas Mavericks

Season series: 3-1 Thunder

Only one of these games from the regular season featured these teams at anything like full strength, and it was a Dallas thrashing: 146-111.

But the Thunder are heavy favorites, and for good reason. Dallas ended the regular season hot but didn’t look particularly inspiring against a Los Angeles Clippers team missing Kawhi Leonard for almost the entire series. Doncic, in particular, struggled to find the bottom of the net while playing on a balky knee.

The Thunder, meanwhile, did precisely what they should’ve done to an eighth-seeded Pelicans team missing Zion Williamson: beat the birdsh*t out of them.

The Mavericks’ ceiling is as high as anyone left in the field, but they’ll need a more effective Doncic to keep up with the Thunder’s well-rounded freight train over a seven-game series.

Key Question: What will the Maverick reserves bring?

Doncic struggled against the Clippers, particularly from deep, where he shot a ghastly 24% from deep on 11 attempts per game. The defense varied from acceptable to frightful on a play-by-play basis. And yet, he was still a superlative passer and rebounder. One of my favorite plays all postseason involved Doncic getting bumped, turning to yell at the ref, and then casually launching a 35-foot dime to a streaking Josh Green:

The ability to perfectly read and react to what’s unfolding on the floor while simultaneously kvetching about a ticky-tack call? That is the peak Luka Doncic experience right there.

(By the way, follow me on Twitter/X if you don’t already! I call out plays like that in real-time, along with other, less cool stuff.)

Despite his shooting woes, which were appropriately woeful, Doncic sported a positive plus/minus in every single game. He has a long history of elite playoff performances, and after several rest days, it’s hard for me to imagine he won’t be better.

Kyrie Irving was unstoppable, scoring at will while putting up effortless 51/45/85 percent shooting splits. I’m not sure there’s ever been an NBA player with better body control. He brought the goods.

But after that, the Mavericks have a bunch of question marks. The Maxi Kleber injury is devastating. He routinely closed at center for Dallas, and although the box score numbers rarely pop, he provided so much flexibility. Without him, we might see 48 minutes of Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively, two solid players with very similar skill sets. The Mavericks might have their fastball, but they no longer have their changeup.

Gafford and Lively must figure out how to guard Chet Holmgren, the Thunder’s floor-stretching rookie center, although I would not be surprised to see them stationed more often on Josh Giddey (see more about that below) so that they can roam in the paint. Both Gafford and Lively theoretically can punish Holmgren at the rim, but the league is littered with the wreckage of people engaging with Holmgren in aerial dogfights. Just look at the charred remains of the Pelicans’ Trey Murphy:

The other role players must step up, too. Derrick Jones Jr., a Poetry favorite, had an elite defensive series against Paul George and the Clippers. He’ll draw the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander matchup. He fared reasonably well against SGA in the regular season, using his length to bother Gilgeous-Alexander even on step-backs, but Alexander also was able to blow by him a few times. DJJ will have to be solid at the point of attack for the Mavericks to have a chance.

More obviously, Dante Exum, Josh Green, and PJ Washington must hit some of their three-pointers. All three have had some trigger-shy tendencies at times, but the Thunder defense has few weak links. Passing up good shots to hunt for great ones is a trap against a team this fast and long. If Exum, Green, and Washington see daylight on the catch, the ball has to go up, fast.

X-Factor: Josh Giddey

In the Thunder’s massive loss to Dallas, the Mavericks completely ignored Giddey, daring him to beat them with his jumper. He didn’t, going 3-for-9 from deep, his most attempts from three-land of the season. This is as disrespectful as it gets in the NBA, with the nearest Maverick not touching him with a 12-foot pole:

He made that one, and 3-for-9 from deep isn’t abominable, percentage-wise. But the Mavericks were essentially playing five defenders on the Thunder’s other four players, suffocating the offense. Dallas notably put Kleber-as-center on Giddey much of the time, but the Mavs’ other centers and Doncic were happy to ignore him, too.

However, Giddey ended the season hot. From March 1st until the end of the regular season, he shot 39% on wide-open threes (which were the vast majority of his attempts — he won’t launch with defenders near). He then shot 10-for-20 from deep against the Pelicans in Round 1.

I don’t think the Mavericks will guard Giddey even if he begins the series accurately. He’ll have as many looks from outside as he wants. If he stays toasty, he could crumple Dallas.

2 New York Knicks vs. 6 Indiana Pacers

Season series: 2-1 Pacers

If styles make fights, this is the series for you. The Knicks were the league’s slowest team; the Pacers were the second-fastest. The Knicks were the league’s best offensive rebounding team; the Pacers were one of the league’s worst defensive-rebounding units. The Knicks generate bushels of free throws; the Pacers play like they’re employing Hack-a-Shaq against everyone.

None of the team’s three prior meetings are particularly illuminating, as they all occurred with key members of both teams’ rotations not-yet-traded-for or injured — the third game featured Taj Gibson starting, so, yeah.

The Knicks played one of the most entertaining first-round series in years against Philly, but the slapdash, frantic nature of the games made it difficult to ascertain the quality of play. The Pacers are coming off an uneven six-game victory over a Bucks team that was missing Giannis for the entire series and Damian Lillard for a few games.

Key Question: Can Pascal Siakam do anything against OG Anunoby?

A fun subplot of this series is the duel between Siakam and Anunoby, the battle of traded teammates. Although Anunoby may end up guarding Pacers’ point guard Tyrese Haliburton for long stretches, I think it likelier that the Knicks employ him to stop Siakam (and ruin any ideas of a Siakam/Haliburton pick-and-roll; nobody wants to switch Anunoby onto the ballhandler!).

While we’ve never seen Anunoby guard Siakam in a real NBA game, since they were teammates for their entire respective careers until a few months ago, they certainly will have plenty of familiarity with each other from practice. They’ll know each other’s tendencies and moves.

I’m a big Spicy P fan, but he does better when he can shoot through and over his defender. Despite his wiry frame, he’s stronger than he looks. Unfortunately, Anunoby is also stronger than he looks… and he already looks way stronger than Siakam.

The Pacers traded for Siakam to improve their defense and provide some secondary playmaking. He’s largely delivered. But Anunoby, my Perimeter Defensive Player of the First Quarter, is tailor-made to shut down players like his old teammate. He’s too big for Siakam to overpower and too quick to go around.

Look at the way Anunoby attacks this step-back jumper from the Bucks’ Khris Middleton. It isn’t dissimilar from one of Siakam’s go-to moves:

Uh-oh.

It’s hard to imagine the Pacers putting up a fight in this series if Siakam can’t find ways to get at least a few buckets against Anunoby. Siakam’s likeliest avenues for consistent buckets are in transition, where he’s a monster, or if he gets hot from the midrange like in those first two games against Milwaukee (although we just saw how difficult that can be against Anunoby).

Maybe Siakam gets lucky, and New York puts Anunoby on Haliburton, leaving Siakam free to attack Josh Hart or whoever else is guarding him. That’s a tasty matchup. But if it’s Anunoby, Pacers fans will have to hope that Siakam picked up some tricks during practice games.

X-Factor: Andrew Nembhard

If the Pacers are to spring an upset, it’s because Nembhard plays to his utmost two-way potential. Nembhard will likely guard and be guarded by the supernova-hot Jalen Brunson. Defending the twitchy Brunson hasn’t gone well for the Pacers: he’s dropped 28, 39, and 40 points, mostly against Nembhard.

Nembhard is a solid, physical defender, but Brunson is as good as anyone in the league at turning physicality into a drawback. He drew at least nine free throws in all three games, using his quickness to keep Nembhard off-balance. I’m not sure Nembhard was ever once not in illegal guarding position:

Nembhard will have to cut down on his foul-prone tendencies. If he can’t, TJ McConnell will likely have next dibs on Brunson, and his lack of shooting can cramp an Indiana offense that needs spacing to thrive (although McConnell has been playing well on both ends). Aaron Nesmith will also spend time on Brunson, but he brings similar hacky tendencies. (Will the Pacers try Siakam on Brunson? Maybe for small stretches, but that creates more problems downstream.)

Brunson’s biggest flaw might be the Atlassian offensive load he has to carry. Nembhard’s best defensive strategy might simply be putting Brunson through the wringer on the other end.

With Haliburton still not looking like his pre-injury self and Myles Turner and Siakam alternating between incredible and pedestrian performances, Nembhard became a welcome source of tertiary scoring against Milwaukee. Nembhard had a terrific series, averaging 14 points and five assists per game on efficient shooting.

Nembhard isn’t afraid to put a shoulder into his man and burrow to the hoop:

He’s not an elite isolation scorer, but he is an opportunistic one, and he’s been far more aggressive lately. The Knicks always have help defense lurking, but Nembhard must force the issue.

Brunson will be playing insane minutes every night. Nembhard’s best hope on defense is to put Brunson on the defensive and try to tire him out.

1 Boston Celtics vs. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Season series: 2-1 Celtics

Not much to learn from the regular season. The Celtics were near full strength for every Cavaliers match, while the Cavs’ only win came without Donovan Mitchell or Max Strus and with the injured Dean Wade as the leading scorer. Wade outscored Boston by himself in the fourth, 20-17, as the Cavs came back from a 22-point deficit.

It was a weird game.

Sadly, Wade hasn’t played since a knee injury in late March. It’s unclear if he’ll return for this series. Cleveland center Jarrett Allen has missed a few playoff games with a rib contusion, while Boston’s Kristaps Porzingis seems likely to miss most or all of the entire series with a calf injury.

Boston is fresh off a brutal five-game stomping of the pathetically undermanned Miami Heat, while the Cavs will need to recover from an exhausting seven-game victory over the Orlando Magic that felt less like winning and more like surviving.

Key Question: How will Cleveland score?

The Cavs are going from Orlando’s second-ranked defense to Boston’s third-ranked unit, and even without having to deal with Porzingis, point-collecting figures to be tough.

It often felt like Mitchell was the sole source of offense for Cleveland in Round 1, but his next task figures to be even more challenging. Instead of a grimacing, hobbled Jalen Suggs (who was still incredible), Mitchell will face the three-headed hydra of Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White, who all saw substantial time on him in the regular season. Congrats on beating Orlando, Donovan! Welcome to hell.

That said, Mitchell did score 30 points per game against Boston in the regular season on 50% shooting from the field. It wasn’t always pretty, but it was generally effective.

Against Orlando, the supporting cast struggled — the Cavs won thanks to Mitchell’s heroics and Orlando’s own inability to score on Cleveland’s strong defense. Backcourt running mate Darius Garland’s shooting efficiency belies his impact — he struggled to even get shots off on offense, particularly when Suggs was guarding him. He’ll face the same monstrous defensive trio as Mitchell, which doesn’t bode particularly well. He has to find ways to get open and get up shots, particularly from deep, where he was Cleveland’s only reliable weapon in Round 1.

Well, almost the only one. Sam Merrill must play more minutes for Cleveland in this series. The 6’4” wing will give Boston a place to attack, but Merrill’s outrageously quick trigger and elite accuracy provide a jolt of adrenaline to the Cavs’ epinephrine-deficient offense:

Jayson Tatum will likely guard Evan Mobley, so Mobley must use his size to take advantage of that matchup. Tatum is strong, but Mobley has become more effective around the hoop. Mobley’s defense on Tatum will be a major storyline, too. If he can play the Celtics’ best player to something resembling a draw, the door to an upset cracks open.

Finally, Cleveland must get better shooting from Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, and especially Georges Niang, who was a complete no-show in Round 1. The only way for underdogs to win a seven-game series is for role players to have hot nights, and Cleveland isn’t devoid of shooting talent. However, they sure lacked shooting results against Orlando. That’ll need to change.

X-Factor: Al Horford

Porzingis seems likely to miss the entire series, which means more of a burden will fall on reserve center Al Horford. Horford has played well this year but didn’t have to play many minutes against Miami in Round 1 — he only cracked 30 once. He’ll likely be needed for that and more every night against Cleveland.

Horford’s ability to stretch the floor could make it tough for the Cavs to play their preferred two-big lineups. Jarrett Allen isn’t as effective as a rim protector if he has to pay attention to Horford in the corner. I’ll be curious to see how willing Cleveland is to let Horford shoot. He shot 42% from deep in the regular season, an excellent mark, and gets up pretty solid volume for a backup center.

Horford will also have to hold up on the glass. Cleveland isn’t an elite offensive rebounding team, but they did have several strong games against the Magic in that area. Without Porzingis around, Cleveland’s Allen and Mobley may sense an opportunity to manufacture some offense by attacking the boards. Horford must hit first and box out the bigger, jumpier Cleveland bigs.