We saw something similar with presidential polls in swing states last year. When information about who was wrong is made highly accessible, looks like you get people bending over backwards to not look like they were wrong! natesilver.substack.com…
Ah I remember that Silver article! Yeah, I've tried to hold myself accountable on things like trade grades and preseason bold predictions -- it's the best way to figure out why my internal compass is steering me wrong (and, as a bonus, readers seem to like it!)
We saw something similar with presidential polls in swing states last year. When information about who was wrong is made highly accessible, looks like you get people bending over backwards to not look like they were wrong! https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state?r=fjran&utm_medium=ios
Ah I remember that Silver article! Yeah, I've tried to hold myself accountable on things like trade grades and preseason bold predictions -- it's the best way to figure out why my internal compass is steering me wrong (and, as a bonus, readers seem to like it!)