"Yer a Wizard, Trae" -- Trade Grades for Hawks/Wizards

Who won the Trae Young/CJ McCollum/Corey Kispert swap?

News broke relatively late Wednesday night (nine eastern is late for an old dad like me!) that the Atlanta Hawks had sent Trae Young to the Washington Wizards for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. No draft capital was exchanged. I gotta say, I enjoyed writing this up far more than I expected; it’s a surprisingly fun swap to analyze!

Given the overall narrative around Young and his raw shooting splits (42% from the field, 31% from deep), you might be surprised to learn that he’s been an elite offensive engine in his paltry 10 games played this season.

Young’s still posting decent efficiency numbers (73rd percentile for point guards in points per shot), still driving an elite offense (the Hawks score 122 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, which is 90th percentile, and the offense craters by more than nine points per 100 possessions when he’s absent), and still posting gaudy assist numbers while dramatically cutting his turnovers from last season.

Advanced all-in-ones like EPM and LEBRON still see him as a top-25 offensive player, more impactful on that end than stars like Victor Wembanyama and Devin Booker. He might not be at his peak, but the fact, as always, remains: Trae Young virtually guarantees you a good NBA regular-season offense.

That regular-season caveat is an important one, as the Hawks have had recurring weekend affairs with the Play-In (oh, you saucy minx!) that never go anywhere serious. Outside of that one magical run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, Young has never made a positive postseason mark.

The elevated level of physicality in the playoffs exacerbates his physical limitations with the ball, and the three-point shot, which is typically inconsistent from Halloween to April Fool’s, becomes consistently terrible.

And I don’t really need to run you through the defense, but I will. Young has tried harder on D under coach Quin Snyder, but that elevates him from the worst defender in the league to the bottom 10 or so. It’s really, really bad — with Young on the floor, the Hawks posted a defensive rating in the oneth percentile. He has the third-worst¹ defensive on/off numbers in the entire league!

(That might slightly overstate things, as Hawks opponents shoot a magma-hot 41% from deep with Young on the floor. Even given his T. Rex arms, bad luck is involved, but the point remains.)

It’s fair to say that few players have mightier strengths and more glaring weaknesses than Young. In a league increasingly obsessed with well-roundedness, his porcelain game has never seemed quite so fragile. That, combined with a massive $49 million player option for next year, makes trading for him both philosophically and technically difficult. I’ve been a mild Young defender for a long time, but even I have to admit it’s difficult to imagine him embarking on another deep playoff run as the captain of the ship.

Good thing that Washington has no immediate plans for a deep playoff run! I don’t actually mind this deal for the Wizards, although my final feelings will be determined by how much they end up shoveling out to Young. Young was excited to go to Washington, which presumably means he and his representation already have an idea of what kind of extension the Wiz have in mind for him. Dollar amount is less important here than years; I wouldn’t want to dole out a long-term extension, but in the short term, the Wizards had $90 million lined up in cap space they weren’t going to use.

There are understandable reasons for the mutual interest beyond the willingness to pay. The easiest way to derail young players is to put them into an offensive ecosystem without a point guard. 21-year-olds already have enough problems adjusting to life as a professional. The season length is nearly triple that of college; opponents are bigger, faster, meaner, more physical, and infinitely more skilled; they’re traveling twice a week and come home to a city filled with strangers; and in this all-too-real hypothetical, they have a point guard who can’t even make a goddamn entry pass. It’s rough!

Young isn’t the most popular teammate in the world, but few are better at putting others in positions to succeed. The passing doesn’t sing so much as yodel. He’ll make Alex Sarr’s life easier in ways the Frenchman can’t even imagine (and, hopefully, further enhance Sarr’s improved but still rather woeful screening technique). He’ll allow human towel Kyshawn George to attack a tilted defense instead of a set one. He’ll deliver an endless supply of catch-and-shoot opportunities on a pure silver platter to promising rookie Tre Johnson, whose Robin Hood marksmanship as a rookie (40% on a whopping 10 deep-ball attempts per 100 possessions!) would be getting a lot more notice if it weren’t for Kon Knueppel setting records left and right.

Those guys will slot into more appropriate offensive roles with Young running the show, and there are few people better equipped to help them learn the intricacies of NBA pick-and-roll offense. I’ve seen some backlash that Young is too difficult to play with because of his on-ball dominance, but nobody on the Wizards right now projects to be someone who needs the ball the way Jalen Johnson or even Dejounte Murray did. It’ll be fine. It might even be good!

On the other side, the Wizards’ defense is already abhorrent, and CJ McCollum is one of the few players in the league with a credible claim to being worse than Young. Kispert is a little better, but not a positive on that end.

Of course, McCollum is a solid locker room guy, something Young has never been accused of. The departing Wizards are also the team’s two best shooters, and it’s fair to say that the gains the remaining Magicians will receive from Young are somewhat lessened by the resulting lack of floor spacing. McCollum is dead-eye with or without the ball, while Kispert has been an elite catch-and-shooter for his entire career. Kispert is also a shockingly good finisher at the rim (>70% in four of his five seasons on better-than-you-think volume). The Wizards already struggle in the paint; they need guys who can make layups!

Young is a better offensive player than both combined, but it’s not a 100% incremental addition by any means. The floor will be cramped, particularly since Young will likely eat into 42% shooter Bub Carrington’s burn.

Another hesitation: What if this works too well? Young won’t turn the Wizards into a playoff contender this year, but a few extra wins in what is likely to be a tanktastic race to the bottom will matter. Don’t forget, they owe a top-eight protected pick to the Knicks, and they’re already flirting with danger.

It’s a tricky calculus to nail. You need your current young guys to develop, and Young should help with that. But you kind of don’t want them to reach full potential too fast, either! Then again, the Wizards have won five of their last eight; they might be a smidge too good to guarantee they keep their pick, anyway. Maybe they already have the core of the next competitive D.C. team.

Here’s where it’s worth pointing out that Travis Schlenk, the former Hawks GM who traded down with Dallas to snag Trae Young in the draft, is now a high-ranking executive with the Wizards. Take that for what you will.