2024-25 NBA Western Conference Preview Haikus

The last poetry for a calendar year, I promise

We just did a quick whip-around of the Eastern Conference with some preview haikus and a Key Question, and now we’re back with fifteen more teams to discuss!

Don’t worry. This is the last actual poetry you’ll see from me until next season. For those of you who recently became paying customers, thank you! If you haven’t, here’s a convenient button for you to click to unlock full access to Basketball Poetry for the upcoming season:

Oklahoma City Thunder

The barking Hydra
Smack one head, two more sprout up
Snarling and toothy

I outlined how the Thunder could disappoint in my unlikely-but-plausible predictions, but I called those unlikely for a reason. This team is deeper and has more shooting than anyone else in the conference, and they are as safe a pick as there is to win the West.

Key Question: How do Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein fit together?

The Thunder might have fewer questions to answer than any team in the league that doesn’t regularly eat clam chowder. The most interesting one is how effective Holmgren and Hartenstein are on the floor together. Best case, Holmgren’s shooting and handle survive being guarded by fours, and Hartenstein’s high-post playmaking greases the wheels of the offense. Worst case, Holmgren struggles to gain separation from quicker power forwards, and Hartenstein’s lack of shooting clogs the driving lanes Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams need to survive.

The Thunder can always bring Hartenstein off the bench, of course, but the peak version of this team might need both bigs playing simultaneously. Unfortunately, Hartenstein fractured his hand and will be out for at least the first six weeks of the season, so we’ll need some time to answer this question.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Anthony dunk
Atomizes defenders
Hot Ragu, Naz Reid.

Although the KAT for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo trade may have been about the money, there’s a reasonable case to be made that it helps them in the regular season, too. DiVincenzo, in particular, fills a desperate need for backup guard minutes and movement shooting. The Wolves will be spectacular on defense again, and the offense could be better than last season.

Key Question: Which Julius Randle do they get?

Julius Randle will almost certainly begin the season as a starter, but his effectiveness with Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards will be a critical factor in determining whether he keeps that role all year long.

Randle’s lack of three-point shooting accuracy (he’s not afraid to get up volume) may close down a paint that already can feel crowded. He needs to be at least a modest threat from deep, or sharpshooting tweener big man Naz Reid might take his minutes.

Randle’s bull-in-a-china-shop impression does bring some welcome secondary creation and rebounding. In some ways, he might be better suited as a sixth man on this team than Naz Reid. The best version of Randle will be a boon to the Wolves; it’s up to Chris Finch and staff to unlock him.

Phoenix Suns

The last superteam
Stars, meandering orbits
Can Coach Bud set straight?

The Suns reworked their depth by addressing a major area of need at the point guard position (even if the Tyus Jones/Monte Morris additions have been overhyped to a degree), drafted two intriguing rookies in defensive-minded wing Ryan Dunn (bombing threes in preseason) and playmaking center Oso Ighodaro, and added one of the most successful regular-season coaches of all time. Age and injury concerns are real, but Phoenix fans should be excited.

Key Question: Can the defense hold up?

I have no doubts the offense will be good. The defense being above-average last season felt miraculous, a testament to Frank Vogel’s coaching, Jusuf Nurkic’s health, and Durant and Booker’s level of buy-in on that side.

A lot will have to go right to come close to last year’s ranking. A few preseason games have already convinced me Dunn is their best big-wing defender, something they’ve lacked in recent seasons; he needs to prove he can be a catch-and-shoot threat on offense over a larger sample to earn playing time.

If the Suns’ defense can hold firm, this team will be a massive threat in a Western Conference that is as deep as ever but feels a liiiiiittle more vulnerable at the top (OKC aside).

Denver Nuggets

The strongest mountains
Are still vulnerable. Drip,
Drip — water erodes

The reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic, provides as high a floor as anyone in the league, but concerns about the lack of shooting on the roster and Jamal Murray’s ugly last few months drop them to fourth in my projected standings. Past offseasons have taken a toll on the roster; can Jokic shoulder a championship burden again?

Key Question: Will the bench survive?

The Denver bench has been completely remodeled, providing both reasons for hope and concern. If you squint, you see the vision. Dario Saric is a ballhandling, shooting big who can somewhat replicate Jokic’s skill set. Russell Westbrook provides pace and breaks down the defense. Peyton Watson is a shot eraser, and Julian Strawther can bomb from deep.

But too much of that vision feels rose-tinted. Westbrook and Watson are limited shooters, Saric’s talents are wasted if he’s not used as a post hub, and Strawther shot 30% from deep as a rookie (although he’s been impressive in preseason).

This is a boom-or-bust bench group, but if they can’t steady out to something better than Denver’s reserves from the last few years, the Nuggets might not enjoy the home-court advantage that gives them such a boost in the playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks

Laughing maniac
berating, smirking, winning
Now with new weapon

I’ve maintained for over a year that the Mavericks are the rare team better equipped for postseason play than the grind of the regular season. Don’t mistake this placement for disdain; there is virtually no gap in my mind between the Mavs and any of the three teams above them, so one or two games might swing them from fifth to second.

Key Question: Can the Klay Thompson/Luka Doncic/Kyrie Irving trio defend anyone?

PJ Washington is a good defender, and center Dereck Lively is a good defender. Neither is elite enough to compensate for the myriad mistakes and gaps the three other presumed starters will make.

I don’t think Klay Thompson has been quite as bad as the world suggested after last season, but he certainly isn’t capable of being the primary point-of-attack defender anymore. He may cede a lot of regular-season minutes to Naji Marshall or Quentin Grimes for more defense, but in the playoffs, we’ll still see a lot of Thompson/Doncic/Kyrie when Dallas needs shooting. They need to iron out the wrinkles ahead of time. I have a sneaking suspicion it will be Kyrie Irving taking the most challenging guard assignments when it matters — he’s had impressive defensive stretches in recent years:

The Mavs will use the regular season to try out their new guys and find the needed rotations. Coach Jason Kidd has a deep roster to work with, but he still needs to figure out how it pieces together to make the prettiest picture.

Golden State Warriors

Splash! Perfect shot. Steph
Sighs; graying, retirement near
One last job to do

The Warriors still have questions about their rotation and players' fit next to Draymond Green and Steph Curry. I was lower on them a few months ago, but they’ve been undeniably impressive in the preseason, almost no matter what roster permutation they’ve used. Nothing has ever gone wrong with trusting preseason data, right?

We said this last year, too, but at some point, Steph Curry will stop being STEPH CURRY. The Warriors have no time to waste if they want to enjoy the final sips of his prime.

Key Question: Can the youth movement meet the moment?

Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody are up for rookie extensions. Kuminga must make a big leap as a playmaker, floor-processor, and long-range shooter to fit the way Steve Kerr wants him to, while Moody simply needs a real role to prove his worth.

Despite having one fewer year of experience, sophomores Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis are easier to project. Podziemski is a hard-nosed guard, and TJD is a mobile rim protector. Both have clearly defined roles, even if their playing time may fluctuate amidst the Warriors’ suddenly crowded rotation.

If Golden State is to surprise teams, it’s because two of the four players above surpass expectations.

New Orleans Pelicans

Imbalanced but deep
The squadron flies together
(…Trade Brandon Ingram!)

It’s dangerous to rely upon the Pelicans, a deep but injury-prone squad with a massive sinkhole in the middle. That said, they’ve already proven to be a good team and are young enough to expect improvement.

Key Question: What the **** do they do at center?

It’s wild to see a team aspiring to win a playoff round have a Kool-Aid-man-sized hole at such an important position.

The options include a possibly-washed Daniel Theis (who can at least shoot a little bit), the raw and unknown rookie Yves Missi (a good athlete with little high-level experience), and some combination of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Herb Jones (which will provide spacing but sacrifice rebounding and rim protection and might be hard to pull off in big minutes).

New Orleans will likely try all of the above while asking around about other teams’ big men. Their ability to find a workable center, either internally or externally, ultimately determines how much of a threat they are come playoff time.

Houston Rockets

A riddle, wrapped in
a mystery, inside an
enigma; who’s key?

The Rockets might be the highest-variance team in the league, which is why I had them almost embarrassingly close to the top of my League Pass rankings. Combine a ridiculously deep collection of young talent competing for playing time, touches, and money, a few low-ceiling, high-floor veterans, and a win-now coach, and something will explode. Maybe the team, maybe my head, I’m not sure. You could talk me into the Rockets at nearly any spot from four to 12, and I’d nod in semi-agreement.

Key Question: Who’s still on the roster after the season?

Houston will have to prioritize someone. If Reed Sheppard looks ready to handle the ball next to Amen Thompson and Jalen Green, do they trade Fred VanVleet? If Sengun starts slow (or Udoka’s longing for a defensive center increases), do they extend Green and trade Sengun? Do they do the opposite? How do Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, and Tari Eason fit in? Does someone else want Dillon Brooks enough to pry him away? Will Jabari Smith Jr. level up offensively?

I feel like all I do is watch and talk about the Rockets, and I have a worse handle on them than anyone else in the league. That’s exciting!

Memphis Grizzlies

Ja be nimble, Ja
Be quick, Ja jumped over the
Seven-foot center

The Grizz are back! Maybe. The West is different but still remarkably deep; there won’t be any easy way back into the top four seeds for Memphis. It’s not impossible, but it will take better health (duh) and improvement from core players.

Key Question: What does Zach Edey look like?

I don’t watch college basketball (side note: I can’t fathom how people can claim to be two-sport experts when I spend so much time on the NBA and feel like I’m just scratching the surface), so I don’t have much idea how the 7’4”, 300+ lb monster in the middle will fare.

He can score in the low post when given a chance, but can he do so with the efficiency the NBA requires? Can he move his feet on the perimeter enough to survive four-second stretches against the league’s quickest guards? Will he be a true rim protector or just a shotblocker (an important distinction)?

I’ve got many Edey questions, and I can’t wait for him to start answering them.

Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron’s long career
21 years, without peer
Old enough for beer

New head honcho JJ Redick has provided some fun coaching twists already (a 3-2 zone!?), but this is still more or less the same roster as last season’s seventh-place squad, which meandered into the play-in despite solid health from both Anthony Davis and LeBron James.

Key Question: Will the three-point volume rise?

The Lakers were 28th in three-point frequency last season. It’s hard to be a great NBA offense if that’s the case. Los Angeles made up for it in other ways to still be an average-ish attack last season, but there’s a cap on teams that don’t shoot threes.

Through five preseason contests, the Lakers have launched 39.6 triples per 48 minutes, 14th in the league. That’s a good sign, although the preseason’s lesser emphasis on the starters makes it hard to know if that will stick. I’m particularly curious to see if Anthony Davis really does take (and make) more threes and if Austin Reaves can grow into his preseason role running more point guard while D’Angelo Russell spots up around him.

Sacramento Kings

Years spent wandering
Are done; Kings, respectable
But can they be good?

Can DeMar DeRozan spark some life back into a Kings team that took a step back last season? That serves as the season overview but is also probably the Key Question.

Key Question: Can DeMar DeRozan spark some life back into a Kings team that took a step back last season?

Truthfully, I don’t know! The league’s best offense in 2022-23 fell all the way to 14th last year despite similar players and good health. The defense isn’t great, but with Sacramento’s personnel, they were never going to be good, so they need to re-find that offensive juice.

DeRozan and De’Aaron Fox should make this one of the league’s deadliest teams in the clutch, which will help on the margins. Will DeRozan, a famously reluctant three-point shooter, fit next to Domantas Sabonis? They’re both clever passers and used to working in confined spaces; it’s possible, but it’s far from certain. Fox, Kevin Huerter, Keon Ellis, and Keegan Murray must make their shots and open the floor for the other two.

Los Angeles Clippers

Four years together
Torn apart; damn CBA!
Kawhi’s kneebroken.

It was kind of sad to see Paul George and Kawhi Leonard separated without us having seen them at their best much, but they — and we — march on with broken hearts and broken knees (I just tore my meniscus IRL, so I literally feel their pain).

The Clippers don’t own their draft pick but do have a chance of keeping it if they end up with a better record than the Houston Rockets (OKC can swap with whichever team ends up with a more attractive pick), so they’ll likely be incentivized to try hard for at least the first few months. That’s an unlikely goal, but it's not completely out of the question.

If Leonard and/or James Harden blow a tire, or they decide to wave the white flag by trading some of their valuable vets, this could get ugly, fast. Kawhi’s uncertain knee status certainly doesn’t bode well for the future, but I think they’ll remain in the play-in fight for most of the year.

Key Question: Does Ivica Zubac have another level?

Really, the only thing that matters here is Leonard and Harden’s health, but that’s obvious and boring. For a more interesting on-court discussion, look for Zubac to improve.

Zu averaged a career-high 11.7 points per game last season, but his ridiculous efficiency (65% from the field!) suggests that there’s more to tap into. He’s not all lobs and putbacks; while he won’t be driving from the three-point line, he has soft touch around the basket on hooks and leaning floaters:

This summer, the team talked about getting Zubac the ball more often in the absence of Paul George. Harden is past his prime, but nobody in the league is a better pocket passer, and there’s a good chance Zubac scores in the teens this season.

The Clippers are shaping up to be a pretty good defensive team; if Zubac can be a real scoring threat, he, Leonard, Harden, and Norm Powell (get ready for eye-popping point totals from Powell) may form an unexpectedly potent offensive quartet that could keep Los Angeles on track for a 14th straight winning season.

San Antonio Spurs

All-encompassing
Alien arms circle globe
Wemby’s time grows near

I don’t believe in the Spurs as a play-in contender, but I believe wholeheartedly in Wembanyama’s ascendance into top-10 player territory as soon as this season. But man, the rest of the team is terrible.

Key Question: Is there anyone besides Wemby worth keeping?

Stephon Castle is a rookie with questions about his shot and position — the jury hasn’t even begun deliberating on him yet, but he has obvious flaws he’ll need to address. Jeremy Sochan has some fervent supporters, but I don’t see how a non-shooting non-center can be valuable next to Wembanyama. Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes are too old to be core parts of the future, although they should help Wembanyama’s development this season (and that’s important!). Julian Champagnie is a solid two-way role player, but he’s probably best as a seventh or eighth man on a good team (he could start on this one).

Devin Vassell should be a key running mate next to Wembanyama, but he’s injured to start the year and will likely need to ease back into transition. Nobody else besides Barnes can shoot worth a lick.

Do you believe in Malaki Branham, Keldon Johnson, Blake Wesley, or Sidy Cissoko? None have shown much yet (Cissoko, to be fair, hasn’t had any opportunity to prove himself).

The Spurs need at least a few guys to look like long-term contributors by the end of this season; right now, only Wembanyama, Castle, and Vassell seem like locks even to be here in a couple of years.

I don’t want to end this on a down note; the Spurs have the guy. The hard work is done, but that doesn’t mean they can slack off or cut corners. The Spurs won’t be good this year, but they could be quite solid as soon as next season. They need to start assembling some winning pieces.

Utah Jazz

Markkanen, sated
Holy combo guards, Batman!
Walker to make jump?

The Jazz locked in Lauri Markkanen for at least another year, but they still project to give far too much time to bad and/or young players to make a strong play-in push. A top-10 protected pick owed to the Thunder also incentivizes player development over winning.

Key Question: Can Keyonte George be the point guard of the future?

The year-end numbers for George were hideous, but they hid some signs of encouraging growth. George had never played point guard full-time and was surrounded by mostly below-average talent, but he showed flashes of being the off-the-dribble playmaker the Jazz hoped him to be:

The Jazz have plenty of other first- and second-year players to develop, too, but it starts with George. He must advance in his second year to provide some direction to Utah’s rebuild and make it easier on the rest of the team’s nascent talent.

As a secondary question, I’m also curious to see if Walker Kessler can improve in his third season after a sophomore campaign that felt (perhaps unfairly) like a step back.

Portland Trail Blazers

Toumani’s handle
Is “toomany_buckets”; I
just wanted to share

The youth movement in Portland is surprisingly strong already. Players like Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Shaedon Sharpe, Kris Murray, and maybe Anfernee Simons (if he’s not traded) form an intriguing, if notably flawed, young group. This year’s focus should be on providing just enough of a winning atmosphere to grade development (harder than it sounds) and not an iota more after that.

Key Question: How much does Scoot Henderson improve?

I mentioned this in another article, but it’s kind of funny how people celebrated Keyonte George’s rookie year as a surprising (if modest) success while denigrating Scoot Henderson’s season, yet their stats were virtually identical. The weight of expectations and all that.

Preseason flashes hint that Scoot has become somewhat stouter on defense and at the rack, although you can only glean so much from samples this small. He still has a long way to go, particularly as a jump-shooter. Still, if Scoot can go from execrable to mediocre in those two areas (46% at the rim last year is eye-gougingly terrible), Blazers fans will feel much better about their future.

Henderson is hardly the only youthful Blazer I want to see improve, but he’s undoubtedly the most important, given his pedigree.

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